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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (183997)	4/6/2006 1:19:13 PM
From: Yousef	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Sarmad, Re: "Would the fabled APM (from AMD) be effective in this case ?" There are a number of different "strategies" for transferring a process. 1) Can match equipment, recipes, ... Copy Exactly (tm Intel) 2) Can use different equipment, but match physical metrics (material thicknesses, linewidth, etc ...) 3) Can match electrical specs such as scribeline test structures and SPICE models. Can then use same GDS artwork. 4) Can change design (GDS artwork) to compensate for different SPICE models and Fab process. As you move from 1->4, the risk goes up that yield and chip performance will not match between different Fabs. I believe that AMD "APM" would be used in conjunction with the #2 strategy of matching film thicknesses and dimensions. Re: "The result has been a shift of share from Intel to AMD." Intel has always been ahead on the process side. This includes a much overlooked advantage in yield, wafer size and thus manufacturing costs. I think Intel will use this to their advantage very soon to take back market share. Jimmy - very "soon". Make It So, Yousef

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (183997)	4/7/2006 12:22:53 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

The result has been a shift of share from Intel to AMD. The obvious question is whether this is a continuing fundamental trend, or a limited-run process ? You should break that in to three possibilities. 1 - A long term continuing trend with AMD taking more market share. 2 - A relatively permanent change (as much as any changes in a dynamic competitive market can be permanent), but one that will not continue for much longer. In other words AMD gained share and in the future they will tend to have a larger share than in the past, but they won't keep gobbling up the market. Maybe the share gains continue for awhile, but there will be some limit, Intel will remain the dominant player in terms of market share for the foreseeable future. 3 - A temporary change that will be reversed. AMD has more share for now, but in the next few months to the next few years there share gains will be reversed and AMD will change back to the relatively marginal player it used to be. The most rabid AMD fans seem to assume number 1. I'm not sure about 1, but I'm betting that it isn't 3. I don't see AMD's market share going down to the low teens any time soon. Number 2 would still be "a limited run process" not "a continuing fundamental trend", but it would have an impact on Intel and a big impact on AMD.