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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (57650)	4/7/2006 12:35:37 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I dont get it Vosilla - from that fdic link earlier: fdic.gov 1986-1989 Compounding of losses as insolvent institutions are allowed to remain open and grow, allowing ever increasing losses to accumulate. How many time we got to shoot ourselves in the foot before we don't keep making the same mistakes - shiller told greenspan in 97 things were getting hairy right? So greenspan gives his exhuberance speech - and shiller been preaching the housing bubble gospel for awhile. I mean new orleans should be proof positive to every citizen out there you better count on yourself - cause the other guy will cut your throat if even 5 minutes ago he was your best friend. (thanks loantech) Ugg. Vader was nice when he was a kid - hehe.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (57650)	4/7/2006 12:39:04 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Fed funds were kept too low for too long. If they had started raising a little sooner and at faster increments the chances of success would have been much greater. We needed a flattened yield curve a year ago.. Speculation was way out of control by then. All those unneeded condos being built and 20-30% added home appreciation in 2005 will have serious ramifications for years to come.. Bingo I was wrong too I thought it would be 3 hikes and out After 6 I threw in the towel and said the Fed would keep hiking until they broke something. They broke housing (finally) but now it seems that is not enough. If they can not rein in carry trades and IPOs and buybacks they will keep hiking and housing be damned. In isolation, housing says they have overshot already (due to lagging effect), how much further they have to go is up to the markets. Right now I would just assume see 3 more hikes (which may mean they are not coming). Mish