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To: russwinter who wrote (58320)	4/16/2006 12:59:56 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

if i were Iran and i were attacked by the US, i would respond with "economic violence". if Iran is attacked they WILL shut down the Strait of Hormuz. that automatically cuts off 25% of total global oil and 40% of the world's traded oil, and will cause a global oil shock the likes of which have not been seen since the 1970s. i think $200 oil will not be out of the question. that is before one even considers the offensive military actions at Iran's disposal in Iraq (Mahdi Army) and through terrorist infiltrations in the West. background info: globalsecurity.org

To: russwinter who wrote (58320)	4/16/2006 1:47:33 PM
From: regli	Respond to of 110194

Iran hasn't attacked another country aside of self defense in the case of Iraq for 250 years. They are surrounded by countries with nuclear capability, not to mention the fact that they have the perfect right to enrich based on their participation in NPT. The key here is to invest significantly in negotiations to defuse the crisis. Enrichment for civilian use cannot be stopped under the treaty. The key is to stop the incentive to go further and develop trust between the parties. One way would be for the U.S. to change course and offer the carrot to guarantee non interference in internal Iranian affairs i.e. the pursuit of regime change. The threats and in particular the consideration of using nuclear weapons by the U.S. in this conflict only accelerates the race to nuclear weaponry by other countries that do not trust the U.S., a group whose size seems to increase every month. Today, no unaligned country appears reasonably safe UNLESS they have a nuclear capability. Just look at developments in Saudi Arabia and Brazil. These are perfect reflections of a policy of unilateral actions.