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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (58322)4/16/2006 1:03:40 PM
From: UncleBigs  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
I think Bush/Cheney would love to see $200 oil especially if they can blame the fanatics in Iran for it. They and their friends and family would personally benefit from such a scenario.



To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (58322)4/16/2006 1:36:18 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
The US has shot their wad on Iraq, now allowing Iran to achieve a huge victory. There is now zero reason for them to compromise or bow to pressure (*). The neo-con plan that Iraq would intimidate the bad guys in the ME with our great might has completely and utterly failed. Instead it has made us impotent, or to borrow a term from LBJ, "denutted". With the end of US military and diplomatic hegemony, is there any chance Europe will take a shot at this? Here's a glimpse of what Iran will do with this nuclear "equalizer"
globalsecurity.org

Either the US gambles along the lines I'm talking about, or Europe commits their political capital in a military operation, or Iran will "do something" and relatively soon. Obviously before Iran "does something", Israel will act unilaterally. This is going to blow up one way or the other.

(*) from Khamenei speech

Often some of our own people, following the enemy's cue, advise us to abandon our principles, thinking it to be some kind of tactic or expediency. Whatever their motive, whether it is weakness mixed with ignorance, or greed accompanied with treachery, the following words of God apply to them:
"Yet you will see those in whose hearts is sickness rushing to them, saying, `We fear lest a turn of fortune should visit us.' Maybe Allah will bring about a victory or a command from Him, and then they will be regretful for what they have kept secret in their hearts. (5:52)

"They will derive no benefit by helping the enemy. The United States and the West have repeatedly demonstrated that. They show no mercy to those who surrender, and quite simply discard their collaborators as soon as they cease to be useful.

"Some others try to inspire awe for the enemy's power and warn those who struggle for a just cause against resisting. A dangerous fallacy underlies such suggestions.

"Firstly, the judicious person avoids conflict only with an enemy that does not threaten his identity, vital interests and his very existence.

"To resist an enemy that does pose such a threat is a definitive judgment of human reason. Because it is evident that certain damage resulting from surrender to him will be the same as the probable damage proceeding from resisting him, along with the additional disgrace and humiliation.


"Today, global imperialism, with the US president as its spokesman, openly threatens the Muslim world and talks of a crusade against it.

"The imperialist network of Zionism and the US and British intelligence agencies is engaged in subversive activities throughout the Muslim world.

"Islamic sanctities are openly insulted with the help of their funds and with their encouragement.

"Even the celestial visage of the supreme Messenger is not secure from their insolence.

"Thousands of movies, computer games and such stuff are produced and marketed with the purpose of casting aspersions on Islam and Muslims.

"All of this is besides their crimes of encroachment on Islamic countries, the massacres committed in Palestine, Iraq and
Afghanistan and their brazen interventions in Muslim countries aimed to secure their illegitimate political and economic interests.

"Surrendering to such an enemy is totally contrary to the judgment of reason, and resisting him is the sole prescription of reason and religion.



To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (58322)4/16/2006 1:47:57 PM
From: bela_ghoulashi  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 110194
 
Iran CAN'T shut down the Strait of Hormuz. It's a ridiculous myth that they can. NOBODY is going to sit idly by and just let them do it. The US would reopen the Strait by force, all the weaklings of the world would rag on us for it, and everyone would benefit except the ayatollahs, who would just be asking for it if they tried.