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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (58642)4/18/2006 8:24:16 PM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
>>>Futures are still zero sum game. <<<

But if you (temporarily) have a lot of money pouring in on the long side, from the oil ETF, it could seriously skew the futures market to the upside. At least for a while.

There is no model or precursor for this situation.

Also, considering GLD. That fund is removing gold bullion from the market, sequestering it as new positions in the fund are established. I see that this evening's KITCO gold quote is now up to $623.40. There are many contributing reasons for this, but to have an instrument created (GLD) where the vast slushiness of U. S. paper money can be conveniently chaneled into bullion is a way to help propel the bullion price on an upwardly unlmited course (for a while).

I just am suggesting that these ETFs could move a great deal of hot money very rapidly into this area. Nothing like these has ever existed before.



To: ild who wrote (58642)4/18/2006 8:30:50 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Respond to of 110194
 
Oil ETF is just a bunch of future contracts, but gold ETFs are collections of physical gold bars.

i guess it would have been interesting if the oil ETF had been designed like GLD to hold physical crude. then, like GLD, they could artificially raise demand for the physical commodity. note that in theory this shouldn't even raise the price for the oil ETF (if they held physical), since the storage costs are already implicit in each futures contract.


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