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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (195117)	4/26/2006 10:10:02 AM
From: eracer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: When I read your lines in the last weeks I assume that you estimate falling ASPs after NGA is launched. Is that correct? Whats your volume estimate for Q3 QoQ and Q4 QoQ? Q3 and Q4 of this year are not a few quarters after NGA launch. I saw your previous estimates for Q3 and Q4 volumes and didn't think they were extremely optimistic. The Q4 single-core volumes looked high and the dual core volumes low in my opinion. You estimated 2.5 million A64 X2 and 5.5 million A64 in Q4. AMD will need to be selling more X2s than SC A64s if they plan to come close to meeting Intel's dual-core ramp. I think there will be a noticeable negative effect on AMD's ASPs and/or market share in H1 2007. I'm sure revenues will be higher than they are today, but expenses will be higher as well. I don't believe it will take net losses for analysts and investors to dump AMD stock. My guess is a quarter or two lower than expected revenues and/or guidance will push AMD's stock well into the $20's if not lower. Heck AMD briefly touched the $20s when they met their revenue numbers and beat the EPS estimates. ... so I'm surprised to see some math and assumptions from you. Up to date I have only seen bla bla bla ... sorry. That's pretty funny considering your previous opinions about Intel's supposed reluctance to cutting prices (Pentium D 930-950 selling for $218-$336 at newegg today...wonder what Dell's costs are): Message 22253249