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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eracer who wrote (195139)	4/26/2006 1:16:01 PM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

[Edited] @Eracer - NGA effects Don't you think you work with different "sentiments" for AMD and Intel? When I read this from you " But the K8L ramp won't be instantaneous either. It will probably take a couple quarters for K8L volumes to get high enough to effectively combat the NGA lineup. " it seems from your previous thoughts, that Intels NGA Launch will have an instant effect on AMD, but when AMD launches new stuff the effect will come after some quarters ... mmhhh, very interesting. " That's pretty funny considering your previous opinions about Intel's supposed reluctance to cutting prices (Pentium D 930-950 selling for $218-$336 at newegg today...wonder what Dell's costs are): " Whats the point, the 950 is "way" over 300 and Intel will intro 960 soon, which will be over 500$. I spoke about 200- 300 for topp bins. So I see, that this isn't reached. In regards to my ASP calcs: " I saw your previous estimates for Q3 and Q4 volumes and didn't think they were extremely optimistic. The Q4 single-core volumes looked high and the dual core volumes low in my opinion. " Thats correct, I'm trying ALWAYS to be on the safe side. " You estimated 2.5 million A64 X2 and 5.5 million A64 in Q4. " Not exactly wrong, I just made a scenario, whether this will come true or not doesn't change the point to which I directed. " AMD will need to be selling more X2s than SC A64s if they plan to come close to meeting Intel's dual-core ramp. " When you speak about Q4 you have to be more specific. On Desktops I think that Intel will not be 50% DC in Q4. Its quite simple, Celeron are minimum in 40-50% volume range here and it stays SC. Take again some 6xx stuff, so when you factor this in, my thoughts are, that Intels Desktop line will sell around 35-40% (high point, I assume 30%) DCs in Q4. If AMD could match this, which today I don't assume, the estimated ASP from my point of view will go SIGNIFICANTLY over 100$. Bookmark this. This would be nice - no question, but just a way lower number will held AMDs ASPs stable. You could also bookmark this - if, yes if we don't get a further and more significant shift towards Sempron, which is today a big volume mover. Edit: @ JOE - sell Today When you ask me, you will get better chances in the next near term ... just my 2c, pitty - too late. -> best wishes BUGGI