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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (195155)	4/26/2006 2:17:17 PM
From: eracer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: it seems from your previous thoughts, that Intels NGA Launch will have an instant effect on AMD, but when AMD launches new stuff the effect will come after some quarters ... mmhhh, very interesting. If you notice I was talking about the effects on AMD a few quarters after NGA launch, not instantaneous effects. Initially NGA parts are going to in limited supply and seasonality will work in AMD's favor in Q3 and Q4. In fact you can see that I was pretty upbeat about AMD's Q3 and/or Q4 outlook in some posts including these two: Message 22253249 Message 22230704 Whats the point, the 950 is "way" over 300 and Intel will intro 960 soon, which will be over 500$. I spoke about 200- 300 for topp bins. So I see, that this isn't reached. You spoke about Pentium D top bins in Q3 and Q4 and questioned how realistic it would be for Intel to sell top binning Pentium Ds for $200-300. As my reply stated and Intel's followthrough on April 23 price cuts suggest ~$200-$300 is coming to Pentium D in Q3, including the Pentium D 960. When you speak about Q4 you have to be more specific...my thoughts are, that Intels Desktop line will sell around 35-40% (high point, I assume 30%) DCs in Q4. If AMD could match this, which today I don't assume, the estimated ASP from my point of view will go SIGNIFICANTLY over 100$. Here are your estimates for Q4: A64-Sempron-X2-Mobile-Server Q4: 5,5 - 5,5 - 2,5 - 3 - 0,7 = 17,2 Message 22339957 According to Intel's roadmap ~80% of Intel's Q4 mainstream/performance desktop CPUs will be dual core while your estimates for AMD are roughly ~30%. Your estimates look like a recipe for an ASP and/or market share shakeup for AMD in Q4 and Q1 07. I feel your A64 and X2 numbers are nearly opposite of where they need to be in Q4.