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To: bobs10 who wrote (195150)4/26/2006 1:32:15 PM
From: BUGGI-WORead Replies (2) | Respond to of 275872
 
@Bobs - Price effects
"
To me the possibility of INTC loosing money this quarter is looking more and more real all the time.
"

I think you overestimate the influence. The Celeron price
cuts are deep, but many buyers target price levels, so the
sentiment will shift somewhat up (more MHZ) if prices (CPU) go
down. Nethertheless, the segment ASP will drop - of course
and I see the desktop Celeronline could take a hit of 15$
Segment ASP. But what does mean?

40Mio. - 45Mio. per quarter (only very ROUGH guesses)
-> 50% = desktop = 20-23Mio.
-> 50% = Celeron = 10-12Mio.

-> 10-12Mio x 15$ ASP drop = 150Mio - 180 Rev. drop.

So its easy to see, that the overall effect isn't that big
and its a good move for Intel, when they could stop with
these actions 1Mio. Sempron (e.g.) units. Take in mind, that
the 6xx prices stay at high levels and with DC share in-
creasing, the overall negative ASP effect could just reverse,
which will depend, OF COURSE ONLY!!! on the MIX.

BUGGI



To: bobs10 who wrote (195150)4/27/2006 8:04:20 AM
From: niceguy767Respond to of 275872
 
"To me the possibility of INTC losing money this quarter is looking more and more real all the time."

Further to BUGGI's response, I, too, doubt such an outcome.

INTC's GM's are likely to drop 5 or 6 points which implies a $600M hit or $0.10/share with the result, other things equal, of $0.13 eps for Q2.

So unless INTC writes down some of that $3.9B "goodwill" ;-), a loss is just not gonna happen in Q2 for INTC.


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