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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (195156)	4/26/2006 2:03:51 PM
From: bobs10	Respond to of 275872

you... I think you overestimate the influence. me... Well, let's look at this from a different view. In q405 INTC earned $.43 and in q106 they earned $.23. Right now analyst estimates are $.16. There's a pattern there that's far from reassuring. I'm not thinking about low-end stuff alone, there are other factors. One is the rapid gains AMD continues to make in the server area. While the numbers aren't large the $s are. Then there's laptops where Turions will probably continue to cause INTC price erosion and market share loss this quarter. Then there's the problem of keeping INTC's fabs running at full capacity. This is a very fixed cost business AMD and INTC are in and any drop in capacity utilization falls directly to the bottom line. With q2 being the slowest of the year and market demand apparently slackening, not to mention fab36 increasing production, and INTC having already stuffed the channels, it's rather easy to come up with a scenario where q2 results in a loss for INTC. Not that it's going to happen, but the odds are definitely increasing. Of course a lot of these problems will also relate to AMD, but AMD is in a lot better position to control things than INTC is. NGA had better be a dozy or INTC is going to be in very serious trouble.

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (195156)	4/26/2006 2:11:43 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Buggi, I see the desktop Celeronline could take a hit of 15$ True. But it has some effect on low end of Pentium / Athlon line as well. Even if not in direct reduction of ASP, it may end up with some buyers of low end of the Athlon / Pentium jumping to Celeron / Sempron. Just a speculation. could stop with these actions 1Mio. Sempron (e.g.) units. Take in mind, that the 6xx prices stay at high levels and with DC share in- creasing, the overall negative ASP effect could just reverse, which will depend, OF COURSE ONLY!!! on the MIX. I think Intel is trying to greatly reduce the premium of DC over SC (on the netburst line) in order to increase the ration of DC. AMD is doing the same thing with Opterons, where AMD can deliver DC without much difficulty. On the other hand, on desktop, AMD did not have the capacity to push this change in Q1, and probably still does not have this capacity in Q2, which is why Intel is pushing it, and why AMD DC premium is so high. BTW, I now think Fab 36 is Rev F only (I know I go back and forth on this issue). This is the reason there was no contribution of Fab 36 to Q1 revenue. If this is the case, then AMD is still somewhat limited (by the capacity) to Intel's push for no premium of DC over SC. I think AMD will have to reduce desktop DC prices, increase DC share of Athlon line. The end effect will probably be a wash - no gain or loss of ASP. Going forward, though in H2, I think DC will be "standard", more or less, and at some point in the future, SC will become Celeron / Sempron only. There may not be any gain in ASPs, but I think it will drive the upgrade cycle. That and later Vista, so I think it will be a good time to be in the CPU stocks. But Q2 will be screwed up by Intel beyond repair. AMD had a cautious outlook because Intel could go nuts. Intel is going nuts. Joe