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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (185878)	4/28/2006 7:02:14 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I think thats where suns analysis when awry Agreed.. But I think there's an even more important point that many people might be missing. Here's Ahmadinejad, an avowed believer that the Shi'a Messiah, the Mahdi, is about to return and lead the Shi'a to victory over all the infidels (western or heretical muslims such as the Sunnis). And we have Ali Khamanei, the "Supreme Leader" of Iran, who allegedly facilitated Ahmadinejad's rise in order to thwart Rafsanjani from accumulating even more power (and potentially the wherewithal to come to negotiating terms with the West). So Ahmadinejad comes out and publicly rants against the US, the right of Iran to possess nuclear technology, and that the Mahdi's return is imminent.. His language is so religiously messianic that it's now very difficult for the Theocrats, such as Khamanei, to rein him in without being seen as less fervent than Ahmadinejah in their own religious beliefs. I mean, can Khamanei actually come out and state that he believes Ahmadinejad is incorrect with regard to Mahdi's imminent return?? Hardly. So they are relegated to having to match his rhetoric, or at least, keep their mouths shut and say nothing. So, in my opinion, the clerics are not physically unable to stop Ahmadinejad (since he effectively controls the IRGC), they are really unable to truly oppose him politically. To oppose him automatically set them up as infidels and heretics. (and we know what happens to them).. And the longer he stays in power without any effective internal or external opposition, the greater number of young Iranians who will fall under his spell and become messianic fanatics in their own right. After all, it's the only political game in town for the average Iranian. You either join the gang, or wind up being dominated by them. So Ahmadinejad is telling the Iranian people that the West doesn't have the spine to oppose him, the self-appointed defender of the Mahdi. And guess what?? If we fail to confront him, call his bluff, and humiliate him in front of his own people by facing him down, then what we've achieved is to make him credible in the eyes of young Iranians. Even if sanctions have little immediate effect, psychologically speaking, having them imposed by the United Nations will put Ahmadinejad in the position of having lost face. And this might be just enough to empower his opponents to call for his resignation. Hawk