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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (23866)	5/2/2006 3:58:17 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

JOE is one of those stocks I've missed, missed, and missed again - decades of missing it. I studied JOE (and passed) when Max Heine recommended buying and holding it, when his protege Michael Price (Franklin Resources), said the same (Mutual's cost basis on their original shares is down in the pennies.),when Marty Whitman recommended it, and when Jim Clark (of this thread) recommended it. Geez, sometimes some guys (like me) always never get the picture or message. Currently I'm having a rough time with all Florida land companies, especially the homebuilders. Continual horror stories cropping up on SI and in media of oversupply and overinventory of property. The homebuilders are reducing estimates, but still they are estimating profits - profits IF THEY OCCUR - that ought to make the stocks attractive buys and/or holds. That is, the p/e's are very low (5x-6x) given past earnings and company estimates of '06 and '07 profits. That several Florida and national homebuilders are now today on the new lows list though is some indication that the overwhelming opinion indicates the homebuilders will not deliver those profits. Even if they don't deliver the profits, several homebuilders are giving assurances that they aren't overbuilding or overpaying for land (because of using options to control land and their willingness to let options expire). A lot of the drop in the stocks that's been expected has already occurred -- I hope. Anyway, JOE's part of the Florida land development scene of course, and seems to trade similarly now to the stocks I own and follow (all moving down).