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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sitkapacific who wrote (50555)	5/4/2006 2:57:21 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

When will you be on Leno...I really wanna catch that show. -g-

To: sitkapacific who wrote (50555)	5/4/2006 3:17:10 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Well, I think the past two weeks have at least been entertaining but not if you sit on a pile of dollars. With suggestions from the IMF and Feldstein (http://www.nber.org/feldstein/siepr319.pdf) among others for a devaluation along the lines of the Plaza Accord, I can't help but be very bearish on the dollar. There is little confidence in the greenback at this point for good reason and today was a perfect illustration. Note that Euro interest rates are still significantly below U.S. rates. yahoo.reuters.com "... The dollar fell to a one-year low against the euro on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet seemingly validated investor expectations for a euro-zone rate hike in June. The ECB earlier left rates unchanged at 2.5 percent, as expected, but in an upbeat post-meeting statement, Trichet reiterated that the bank would need to exercise "strong vigilance" in setting monetary policy given the low level of interest rates and rising price pressures. ..."

To: sitkapacific who wrote (50555)	5/4/2006 6:28:56 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

And looking at a weekly chart, I'd say there is a decent chance we have an H&S bottom in the works. To me, it looks like the most dominant trend would be a H & S top with the H @ 121.29 in 2001, LS @ 102.82 in 1998 and RS @ 92.63 in 2005. We all better hope that formation doesn't continue to unfold or we are looking at a minimum 50% haircut in USD. Timba