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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jackjc who wrote (10721)	5/7/2006 1:31:38 AM
From: The Vet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78421

Of course price projections and comparisons are only valid if the value of the currency that the comparisons are made in doesn't change. Nobody seriously considers that the US dollar in 1979 has the same value or buying power than it has now. Just look at a short term US dollar on a trade weighted basis.. it's going down daily...

To: jackjc who wrote (10721)	5/7/2006 2:17:23 AM
From: Gib Bogle	Respond to of 78421

OK, it's a deal. You tell us when to sell. <g> Semi-seriously, knowing when to sell has always been my biggest problem.

To: jackjc who wrote (10721)	5/7/2006 7:37:20 AM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78421

jack - I suspect that the brokerages will turn out to be as accurate on their metal price forecasts as they have been on oil (until recently, anyway, they're getting on the bus now). Does sixty cent zinc include an assumption of $35 oil? The Coxe call this week was well worth a listen, I thought, here's a snippet: So, the argument that we used in the February issue of Basic Points which was that we were moving from the demand side of the commodities story to the supply side, which was that we suggested perceptions will change about those coming supplies. That the unanimity as of the January publications that we got from across the US and international analysts of the mining companies, there was more than a 90% consensus that we were going to have ninety cent copper by the end of this decade. Well that consensus has certainly been blown away. And actually, it’s interesting that we’ve now got the copper prices year-end of ’07 have been as high as two dollars and ninety cents a pound. They’ve sold off today, but what we still have is those prices which are well into the future that is basically three times the price of what was the consensus as of only a few weeks ago.

To: jackjc who wrote (10721)	5/7/2006 8:55:33 AM
From: Pianoman1997	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78421

Jackjc, don't know if it will shoot to 50 or stay there 1 day only but last time it shot to 50$, fundamentals for the metal were far from being as good as today from a supply-demand -reserve point of view. First, Reserves were several fold what they are today. Also The Hunt brothers were also the ones that tried to make a coup by using futures to buy all the silver. They were cornered by huge margin calls when banks increased the minimum cash forcing them to sell huge paper positions. Today is quite different. As far as scrap silver, you're right, this will come to play eventually but I think it will be a short term supply affecting silver prices only for a year or two. The only think to slow this down is producing more silver from mining and that will take 10-15 years before you see a large bump. Silver is the metal with the best fundamentals right now, even after the recent increase. Just my opinion... Dan

To: jackjc who wrote (10721)	5/7/2006 11:17:55 AM
From: loantech	Respond to of 78421

jack your opinion is one worth to watch IMO. When the base metal stock prices are getting lofty in your opinion let us know. Of course readers must realize the even if you say it it does not make it true but will be another piece of the puzzle to decide whether or not to buy sell or hold.

To: jackjc who wrote (10721)	5/7/2006 3:40:25 PM
From: koan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78421

I guess I will differ with you here jack re price of silver. As I remember silver stayed above $20 for quite some time. I think silver settles closer to $40. One has to add the asian equation to the prediction and the non stop turmoil in the world I see from now on. NOt too mention a chronic problem with the dollar as I see it. But you could be right. It was more of a rhetorical question. I really have no idea. They could find a new use for silver that would just suck up huge supplies of the metal. And I think zinc stays over a dollar. The reason is that there are so many new demands for zinc (e.g. new middle class in asia buying appliances and cars, etc) and so many huge building projects going on in the world and so much cash to fund them. Some of those new projects will use an entire mines worth of zinc. One trillion in building projects in UAE area right now. People are building larger and larger construction projects as our engineering capabilities improve. Cheers