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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (60540)	5/8/2006 10:04:54 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

How do you get to the text of that? All I see is the introduction.

To: russwinter who wrote (60540)	5/8/2006 10:19:19 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

delete

To: russwinter who wrote (60540)	5/9/2006 5:01:52 AM
From: basho	Respond to of 110194

Russ, that's the single most interesting macro piece in a long time. The tremendous influence of FCBs is hardly a new topic on this board -- quite a few of us have banged on about it from time to time -- but GaveKal's presentation is particularly crisp and enlightening. Even though China was mentioned, I think it deserves a bit more emphasis. When Japan backed off from its furious intervention in 2004, the slack was fully picked up by China. Admittedly, the yuan probably doesn't lend itself to carry trade activity in the same way as the yen but the growth in reserves in the last three years has from memory been about US$600 billion. Remarkably similar to what Japan managed between 2001-2004. This truly is the core issue, I suspect. As we know, the FCBs have been doing the serious monetisation for a long time and in doing so have allowed the Fed to look moderate and avoid hard decisions. That period of undeserved peace may be about to end.