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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (6555)	5/19/2006 4:08:51 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220255

Why I am going heavily to cash... 1) US Interest rates are up around 5%. Many US institutions and individuals can meet thier long term goals by reutrns in the 5 to 8 percent range. When interest rates are around 4%, they need to have a large allocation to stocks, even though there is greater volitility. With 5% rates even on short term paper, more money can go to bonds, and stock positions reduced. 2) Lots of money is leaving the US stock market for better performing markets in Brazil, Germany, Canada, etc. Both individuals and funds see better bargains in foreigh stocks for right now. 3) Our friends the Hedge funds. It turns out that more than a few hedge funds have made year to date returns in the 50% range, 30-70 % or so, mostly betting on metals and oil. They have made their year. They can leave their money at risk in the market, or move most of it to short term bonds and add 2.5% to the 50% they are up already. Sell in May and go away. Wait for much better prices or a few foreign opportunities, or a replay of the oil and gold run ups. I know what I would do. Remember that 2005 and 2004 were not the best years for many hedge funds, and investors tended to remove funds. 4) I don't think the US economy is tanking, but rather that it could be strong enough to get some more rate increases from the FED - which feeds item 1. 5) If the Democrates win enough House seats in the November 2006 elections, it is likley they will try ot impeach George Bush and/or Dick Cheney in 2007. This tends to tank the stock market. This is not being discussed in the US press yet, but has shown up in the UK Spectator. The Democrates will not do well in November if they start talking about this. Most people do not want the turmoil. Most of this would have been considered political infighting a few months ago, much like the Clinton business. There are now two items which are cause for concern. > Vice President Richard Cheney's association with the Valerie Palme / Joseph Wilson leak. This fits under the "high crimes and misdemeanors" criteria for impeachmeant. Also, who the people most ticked off about this ? The intelligence community - all 14 or 16 agencies, most of the US military, and most of all the CIA. I would not be surprised if more revelations of bad things turn up...things which were supposed to be very hidden. > The massive NSA spying, WITHOUT A WARRANT. There are special courts, Foreign Intellignece Survellienc Act courts (FISA). There are about a dozen judges, some one is available 24/7, and they have essentially unlimited security clearances. They approve about 98 % of all warrant requests. More like 99.7% Oh, in an emergency, there is a provision that you cna spy first, and get a warrant up to 3 days later. When the NSA was talking to the phone company Qwest, they did not get a warrant. The fourth amendment to the US Constituion essentially say you must have a warrant. Now Qwest did not cooperate, so there was no crime there, but if any of the other telephone companies did cooperate without a warrant. It appears now that President George Bush may have directed the NSA to engage in this massive surviellance. If he was aware it was done without getting a warrant, that could mean he could be impeached AND convicted, meaning he would be replaced as President. *************** So I intend to look very selctively at foreign stocks, and a few US stocks, but I think I will be heavily in cash and US bear funds. We should have some nice bargains soon. I just don't want to be part of the bargain making process ;-) In a later post will talk about natural gas and oil prices - I think they are still dropping, be will be good long term.