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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (198014)	5/19/2006 6:23:18 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Also, I really don't see why people are taking issue with Doug's competivie analysis and new position. All indications are that NGA is going to be a great processor family. It took AMD two years to make hay with a superior product, due to having to swim upstream agains a monopolist and engrained perceptions. When the competitive advantage shifts back to Intel this summer and fall, the market perception will turn on a dime. I'm not saying that AMD will not still do well, but any indication of Intel regaining maket share will send AMD shares tumbling with investors running for the hills. I've been invested in AMD too long not to know this. I think what should be considered, though, is that for AMD this fall, it will be more of a platform thing. The virtual gorilla, with ATI, nVidia, and Broadcom should provide desireable systems to carry them through to K8L. NGA caught AMD flat footed. They should have had K8L out this spring, not next spring. But they couldn't because this time around, Intel out-innovated them. Fortunately, the cross-license allows AMD to reverse engineer these things (OOO load, in place of disambiguation, etc) and get them into K8L; along with other K8l innovations. As an investor, none of this technical stuff really matters, because our technical understanding will make us "early". We just have to figure out what the market will do before it will do it. Intel will find a bottom either before, or on the day after, their Q2 report. Let's say that bottom is $15. To gain 50% from there, it only has to go back to $22.50. Amd, at $35 is up on the Dell thing, but facing near term competitive shift (anyone remember what happens to AMD when they trail in performance; 4P Opteron not withstanding?). 50% for them is $52.50. I think that many good arguments can be made for both of them to reach those price levels. But I think Intel going from $15 to $22.50 is a better bet. At this point, I would put money in both. AMD will only go down on good news for Intel. So, it might be a good hedge. I think Vista in 2007 lifts all boats. Pravin.