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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend View Index from Silicon Investor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SI Bob who wrote (19)	5/22/2006 1:57:35 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 33

Hi Bob, In the mean time check out how the Trend View Index is looking this week............. The "weighted" value really fell off the end of the table this week. This means fewer votes showing extreme "Strong Buy" recommendations and many more showing "Strong Sell." For short term traders this is the second week in a row of a signal to 'get liquid.' For longer term investors this would be a time to start hunting through one's favorite watch list for candidates that are coming into price range for long term holdings. I think having the weighted cross over the unweighted value will, in time, prove to be a pretty good indicator by itself. Time will tell! Best regards, Tom

To: SI Bob who wrote (19)	5/22/2006 2:03:16 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 33

Hi Bob, Re: reconstructing history.............. Would it be possible to take a snapshot of every Monday since the Sentiment page was started? If so, then I could construct some history. I'd need both the Ascending and Descending values for the 10 day period on each of the Mondays. With some more history we'd be able to see the build-up to this most recent break in the markets. Let me know....... Thanks, Tom

To: SI Bob who wrote (19)	5/30/2006 11:25:14 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 33

Hi Bob, Last week's rally toward the end of the week managed to change the short term sentiment's direction to something a bit more positive. However I note that the "unweighted" value still was falling slightly. This corresponds well with the fact that today, for the first time since I've been following SI's Sentiment page, we have less than 50 stocks with a "10" value for bullishness (9.98 x 8 votes for QCOM). The unweighted value is just the sum of the 50 scores from each the Ascending and Descending columns. This is just the raw data and is less sensitive to the number of votes being cast. The weighted value sums the vote score times the number of votes for that stock. So this weighted value takes into account the frequency of voting, not just the score. From this I am assuming that the "bulls" started voting again quickly as the market seemed to feel better those last three days of the week. The "bears" were quieter and therefore their score remained relatively low. In summary I feel that the unweighted score is showing us a longer term aspect while the weighted is giving us a reading on what the shorter term trader is thinking. Best regards, Tom

To: SI Bob who wrote (19)	8/22/2006 3:41:19 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33

Hi Bob, The change in attitude about the stock market is showing up nicely in the SI Sentiment "Trend View" indicator. Lots of 10s being registered in the voting and not much in the way of lower scores. So far I'm still guessing that the scoring here will be "contrary" in that when everyone's "bullish" as now, it's really a bearish indicator for the market for the near future (1 to 3 months). It's still so early in the collecting of data that this might be proved wrong, but for now we'll stick to our guess. I'd still like to build out the data base with the Monday values for the previous 10 days accumulated voting for both ascending and descending scores. I use both the raw scores and the number of votes for each score. My Weighted value is the sum of the scores times their votes and the Unweighted is the sum of the scores alone. If you could provide me with data as far back as your files go, I'd be happy to build out my database and calcs. Best regards, Tom