Trend View Index from Silicon Investor | Stock Discussion Forums

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Strategies & Market Trends
Trend View Index from Silicon Investor

An SI Board Since May 2006

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans
33	0	0

Emcee: OldAIMGuy	Type: Moderated

Introduction Compact

In 2005 Silicon Investor boss, Bob Z decided it would be a good idea to allow us, the SI members, to have the Right To Vote as to how we feel about the stocks we follow. To do this he created a page ( siliconinvestor.com ) where the cumulative voting on individual Stock Threads would be displayed for the latest two to three weeks.

USES........
1) Short Term Traders should view a high value as Bullish as it indicates a lot of buying sentiment
2) Long Term Investors should view this indicator in a contrary manner. High readings would indicate a disregard for risk.

If we are posting to, say, the Apple Computer thread we're given the opportunity to add our opinion as to the stock's current placement in a ten segment range from Strong Sell to Strong Buy. This scale runs from 1 to 10 with 10 being the strongest Buy indication.

Each time one of us votes along with posting to a Stock thread SI picks up that vote and tallies it along with all other votes. Using the data from Silicon Investor's Stock Sentiment Detail once a week I've created an Index with which we can follow the history of this opinion poll as compared to the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 Indexes. As we vote, we're not only giving our opinion on an individual stock but will be contributing to the sum total of a general market overview.

Generally if there are lots of "strong buy" votes and not many "strong sells" the index will rise to a very high level. We can assume that this will correspond to a rise in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 Indexes. (if everyone's buying, it should be driving the prices up)

A large number of "strong sells" will bias the index to a lower value assuming that at the same time there's not many "strong buy" votes. So, a lower value would be viewed as everyone wanting to get liquid. (if everyone's selling, it should be driving the prices down)

Trend View Index
(Weighted Values)
Highest Score = 1905.6, 08/21/2006
Lowest Score = 47.7, 07/03/2006

So, a high positive number means there's a lot of bullish sentiment. Contrary to that a large negative number will be viewed as significant bearish sentiment. We would, if we could back test this, expect a very high number in the first three months of 2000 when BEARS were extinct. Further by late 2002 to early 2003 after the death of the last BULLS we could expect to have seen a very large negative number.

As the data accumulates and the histogram develops we should be able to see a correlation. I've plotted the raw, unweighted data along with the weighted so we can get a feel for the level of voting along the way. Heavy voting will create a large gap between Weighted and Unweighted values. Experience at SI has shown that during bear markets, posting counts fall off dramatically. Bullish periods bring on the highest posting counts. So, this will be a secondary glimpse of general market sentiment.

Please feel free to ask questions and comment on this latest Sentiment Indicator from Silicon Investor.

Best regards,
Tom Veale

Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):

Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
33	Heavy voting on penny stock PLNI skewed the SI Trend View Index this week. Such	OldAIMGuy	-	9/12/2006
32	Hi Bob, I'm taking the "score" times the number of "votes&quo	OldAIMGuy	-	8/30/2006
31	Having trouble getting my head around the math right now, but if you sum the sco	SI Bob	-	8/30/2006
30	Hi Bob, The change in attitude about the stock market is showing up nicely in th	OldAIMGuy	-	8/22/2006
29	A significant rise in the Weighted Trend View this week signals some highly bull	OldAIMGuy	-	8/7/2006
28	The weighted Trend View value remains very low and therefore bullish for the com	OldAIMGuy	-	7/10/2006
27	A wild week's worth of data shows up here in the Trend View Index. We're	OldAIMGuy	-	7/6/2006
26	This week we're seeing the result of heavier voting for the SI stocks. The h	OldAIMGuy	-	6/26/2006
25	A rather stunning increase in bullish sentiment has occurred this week. While th	OldAIMGuy	-	6/20/2006
24	June 12th data brings us yet another week of declining Trend View index numbers.	OldAIMGuy	-	6/13/2006
23	Slope remains negative with June 5th's data entered. <img src='http	OldAIMGuy	-	6/5/2006
22	Hi Bob, Last week's rally toward the end of the week managed to change the s	OldAIMGuy	-	5/30/2006
21	Hi Bob, Re: reconstructing history.............. Would it be possible to take a	OldAIMGuy	-	5/22/2006
20	Hi Bob, In the mean time check out how the Trend View Index is looking this week	OldAIMGuy	-	5/22/2006
19	Since I'm storing every individual vote for every day/user/ticker, it'd	SI Bob	-	5/21/2006
18	Wonder why your chart didn't show up correctly. Edit bug? No matter. I	SI Bob	-	5/21/2006
17	Hi Bob, Re: Mining the Sentiment Data........... As time goes forward it might	OldAIMGuy	-	5/20/2006
16	Hi Bob, I've been checking the Sentiment scores nearly daily now. It's i	OldAIMGuy	-	5/20/2006
15	Though creating/displaying graphs based on data inputs is far beyond my scope of	SI Bob	-	5/19/2006
14	Yep. Pictures are showing up all over the place. And we hit some really high p	SI Bob	-	5/19/2006
13	A quick glance at the Sentiment page shows there's still a full 50 stocks wi	OldAIMGuy	-	5/18/2006
12	HOORAY!!! The chart is there!!! Now everyone will know what we're talking ab	OldAIMGuy	-	5/17/2006
11	Good afternoon Bob, Re: "Retail" investor vs Institutional investor...	OldAIMGuy	-	5/17/2006
10	Line 192. Turns out I'd modified the backend message-submission routine, an	SI Bob	-	5/17/2006
9	<i>>Though the display side of things uses exactly the same function th	SI Dave	-	5/17/2006

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