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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (19027)	5/22/2006 1:23:12 PM
From: matt dillabough	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Overall inventory levels remain lean for Semiconductor Supply Chain, despite PC stall - Jefferies Jefferies believes that inventory levels for semiconductor supply chain are normal and hence in the middle of a normal Semiconductor cycle. Firm's analysis indicates that the 1Q:06 Inventory Days ratio is well in-line with normal seasonality and at the mid-point of a normal Semiconductor cycle. However, firm does expect some inventory build up in the PC exposed sub-sector as a result of the current PC Stall in the marketplace. Firm believes that the semiconductor cycle has not reached its peak yet and the SOX can continue to work higher in 2006. Firm believes that while Semiconductor Devices Inventory levels are higher, the remaining supply chain is leaner. This indicates the net Inventory levels are normal with more Inventory risk shifting to the Semiconductor suppliers.

To: The Ox who wrote (19027)	5/22/2006 1:26:15 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

IMO, the sector has been washing out for the better of the past 5 years. I have never seen data ignored such as I do with this sector. MS comes out with a capex forecast of $55B for 2006($59B was the high in 2000) and the stocks only go down. In 1998, there was no visibility and we also had the asian contagion to deal with. Now, we simply have ever increasing semi sales accompanied by stock selloffs. I am ready to bag this entire sector. Brian

To: The Ox who wrote (19027)	5/22/2006 3:01:01 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Ox, if you mentally extrapolate SEMI bookings, it looks like just a few months till a temporary peak. If the big money does that, then they won't buy the stocks now. The next equipment bookings trough will probably be higher than the last one [again extrapolating the trend]. chart briefcase.yahoo.com open SEMIcharts folder then SEMIequipment_btb.gif That leads me to conclude that stock price swings are becoming smaller and therefore much less profitable - especially since timing is now more difficult than it was when bookings were V-shaped. PS: KLAC down 10%