Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (61678)	5/22/2006 11:25:44 PM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Japan's incomes were/are for the most part sustainable. They produce more than they consume. A big chunk of u.s. gdp is unsustainable fluff. Pulling money out of your house with a heloc and spending the money on vacations, clothes, toys, furniture, etc. is not sustainable gdp. All of that frivolous spending will soon evaporate. Attach a velocity factor of money and I predict that sustainable gdp in the u.s. is at least 30% to 40% less than today. How much does housing decline when speculation is eliminated, psychology turns from "buy now or forever be priced out" to "real estate is the worst investment you can make", and an economy that is just a shadow of its former self. My prediction is that housing falls by a minimum of 50% in real terms within 4 years in the major metro areas of the country. I don't think Sir John Templeton's prediction of a 90% drop is out of the question.