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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (61913)	5/24/2006 3:50:10 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed May 24 2006 15:27 trotsky (i should amend that) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i don't care about it from a personal PoV - this doesn't mean i'd welcome a BK. it would be bad for everybody, even those who remain unscathed by the event itself. Date: Wed May 24 2006 15:23 trotsky (Hambone@probabilities) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, as you know, i agree with that. it looks very dicey. luckily i ALWAYS buy hedges - the VIX in the vincinty of 10 made hedging very cheap, and it's well worth it when everything falls apart. so i don't care much one way or the other - the only thing i'm really worried about is that the electronic trading transmission systems could break down during a real crash. Date: Wed May 24 2006 14:37 trotsky (@emerging market currency blow-up) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this is basically the carry-trade going belly-up very fast, as it is wont to do on occasion. you can blame the BoJ. Date: Wed May 24 2006 14:31 trotsky (Hambone) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved quite right, it wuld require a broader market comeback - without that, the gold shares fall prey to their relaitve illiquidity. the situation is as follows: the broader market SHOULD rally here, on account of being oversold and there being a large spike in intra-day p/c ratios. also, the Rydex bull vs. Rydex bear plus MM fund ratio has inverted, which normally happens at intermediate term lows. there's only ONE exception to the 'bounce must happen now' rule - a crash. that is by its very nature a low-probability event, but the probability is somewhat higher than normal due to the fact that several very big put strikes have been breached ( i.e. strikes where there is very large put OI ) . Date: Wed May 24 2006 14:23 trotsky (messy79) ID#248269: i admit it's not an outlandish target - so far, the HUI has ALWAYS retested its break-outs. Date: Wed May 24 2006 13:53 trotsky (messy79) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved you had the exact same message all the way up as i recall ( i.e., from 560 to 730 you kept issuing downside calls ) . broken clock syndrome.

To: GST who wrote (61913)	5/24/2006 3:57:35 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

So why do you think that "The housing bubble can be corrected in a few years".