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To: bcrafty who wrote (133115)	5/26/2006 3:44:14 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Some interesting ideas there, BC. But BC.....you know I've floundered through just about every count imaginable.....and....yes,...that's a count I once propounded here.....LOL Even posted some charts which I'll have to look up....And frankly, can't remember exactly why I dropped it.....LOL again. Will do some digging over the long weekend.....and try to refresh my frail memory.....vbg

To: bcrafty who wrote (133115)	5/26/2006 10:44:58 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 209892

It's possible too... the four year cycle and 5 waves complete up in some markets in Europe, Australia etc. supports my idea that the cycle is complete in the US. Also can you do the same or similar count on the SPX, Dow etc.

To: bcrafty who wrote (133115)	5/27/2006 10:28:29 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

This morning I spent some time looking at charts, and once again I could see how limited and probabilistic - and often misleading - is the predictive power of chart formations. It looks like something important happened to the SPX in the Summer of 1998 - it was the end of a wave which preceded the last one, up to the 2000 highs. (As I recall, the AD line for SP topped in the spring of 1998). It also looks like the final wave was an Ending Diagonal with a failed 5th which topped on September 1, 2000 -- which, in this case, may probably be considered the orthodox top of the great Bull market in SPX. The decline towards the 2002 lows was volatile and choppy. The volatility near the bottom is a good illustration of the limitations of TA - in this case, EW. Look at the declines into the July and October lows of 2002 (and then, March 2003) - they all look impulsive - and yet, they led to the advance of the last few years. Could it be that March of 2003 was actually the orthodox low of the Bear market - rather then the 2002 lows? At this time my best guess is that the advance up to the recent highs was a series of "threes" - not entirely unlike the picture in this post, but upside down. Message 22474069 The implication, of course, would be rather bearish for the next few months. We would be facing the Wave "C" - an impulse down. Trading it may not be easy. Just imagine what fun it would be if that "C" takes the form of a large choppy Ending Diagonal? -g/ng After that putative "C" is completed, could the entire formation since the 2000 top be an "ABC" - which perhaps would be only the [A] of a much larger structure? I think this is possible. Mr. Market has all the time in the world. ....But we do not. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone... ;)

To: bcrafty who wrote (133115)	5/29/2006 10:38:42 AM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

BC....I think this chart illustrates what you were suggesting as an alternative NDX count: As with so many possible EW counts, I am puzzled as to the relative merits and acceptability of an 4/05 low in comparison with an 8/05 low. I don't see any objective way of settling the issue, but prthaps some of our more accomplished E-Wavers may weigh it. Assuming, however, the validity of this count....and that I am reading you correctly.......... I am not sure how you then arrive at the judgment that: <<.........This proposal allows for more down for the next few months...>>......????