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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dougSF30 who wrote (198966)	5/27/2006 10:35:13 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

"That's called a pricing waterfall." Sure you're not being a tad euphemistic in your description? After all, INTC is looking at serious erosion with its "32-bit only" offerings in this once uncontested notebook segment. I'd call INTC's notebook pricings "panic pricing" in attempt to stem the accelerating erosion in this segment...But alas, with "32-bit only" features, buyers seem to be drying up at any price for these "32-bit only" relics from INTC ;-)

To: dougSF30 who wrote (198966)	5/27/2006 10:56:04 AM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Considering that Core duo had a massive performance advantage over AMD all of Q1- AMD should not have gained ANY notebook share in Q1- but they did. The biggest problem that Intel has is that AMD has been legetimized. They hold so little share in about ~75% of the mainstream market (where nobody gives a hoot about performance) that just getting a footprint in that space will enable them to continue gaining share. In the past- no one wanted to go to AMD in the mainstream market because: 1. AMD was "not suitable" for business needs- no longer true. 2. AMD did not have a footprint in servers- no longer true. 3. AMD did not have a large enough footprint with the top OEM's so the intertia to design in AMD was huge- seperate design and validation teams etc.- no longer true. 4. AMD was kept out due to Intel's "prevent socket loss at any cost" which included strong arming- probably still happens a bit- but increasing evidence that this is becoming less of a viable tactic for Intel. 5. Intel's manufacturing was demonstrably better than AMD's including volume capacity- Definitely no longer true. It looks like AMD can easily supply 40%+ of the world market and it's now a matter of getting the socket wins to use that capacity. 6. Mhz wars are dead. Heck- most folks can't even tell a Dxx from a 51xx etc. I don't even know what these things stand for anymore. The old days of Intel using the top few speed bins to pressure AMD are gone forever. The top few speed bins account for less than 10% (I'm gussing but am willing to be educated if you have a link) for Intel. There is only so much you can do regarding waterfall pricing to prevent AMD from gaining a "fair" share. TG

To: dougSF30 who wrote (198966)	5/27/2006 11:08:28 AM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Respond to of 275872

That's called a pricing waterfall. You know, when you introduce a faster part, in this case Yonah 2.33GHz, it gets the old "top price" of the 2.16GHz part, and so on. Obviously you investments are your business. However, before you put too much on the line based on "Intel may have a 2-3 speed grade lead over AMD and the good ol' times will roll" consider a wider prespective: During the "good ol' times" AMD's ASP's were in the 60's to 70's. Intel's were ~$250. Today AMD's are high $90's and Intel's ~$145. Even if AMD ASP's fall to the "old AMD's" ~$70 range (which would be insane as that would not give any credit to AMD's significantly higher penetration in the server space etc.), you think that Intel's ASP's are headed back to the $200+ range? You think that tier 1 OEM's will be happy to have Intel return to those days? If not, then you HAVE TO conclude that Intel's top speed grade advantage is deleveraged by the loss of the "Intel premium" and the "let the good times roll" are gone forever and this is going to be a one hore race. In that scheme of things- even a 1 year lead for Intel (till K8L and the hounds come out) may not be that material in this (now) two horse race. TG