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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (187914)	6/1/2006 12:28:22 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Sunni Arabs in Ramadi daily experience chaos that belies official optimism - they are caught in a pincer between the Shi'ite/Kurdish armed forces, the insurgents who demand absolute fealty, and US military might....It is difficult not to argue that in such places as Ramadi, if not in all of Iraq, it is the US presence at the locus of the violence Haven't they just contradicted their own argument in the space of three paragraphs? Either the insurgents are duking it out with the Shi'ite/Kurdish armed forces, or the US is the locus of the violence, but it can't be both, unless the claim is that the Shi'a and Kurds would be able to settle amically with the Sunni insurgents if only those dratted US forces were gone. This claim is absurd on its face, considering the nature of the parties involved. BTW, I don't think an insurgency that has to get cooperation by assasinating the leaders of that group of people which should be its base of support, can really be called a popular insurgency.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (187914)	6/1/2006 12:46:16 PM
From: one_less	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Good analysis. I think it is possible to get the malitias to lay down their arms but that is only one step in the direction of stability and leaves many things as tentative. For example, Al-Sadr's Mehdi Army has been convinced to lay down their arms more than once. The problem is this particular group will never agree to disban, and their influence is spreading. I have been predicting for a couple of years, they will become a multi-national organization that rises to superpower status over time. In some sense they have already started. Even when they lay down their arms, Al-Sadr maintains their right to continued existence. He is supported by the Mullahs and is unopposed in that declaration from other entities. Even the Sunni spokespersons who hate him personally are not willing to denounce the ideology of the Mehdi Army. Al-Sadr is also known to be maintaining a complete shadow government in the private sector that is supported by people in legitimate governmental positions.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (187914)	6/1/2006 1:07:35 PM
From: one_less	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

"And yet from the other side of the looking glass, things are going more or less to plan, and Iraq is soon to become a wondrous, happy place. Any day now Sunni, Kurd and Shi'ite will lay down their arms and sit down together at the Mad Democracy Tea Party, and the coalition freedom-bringers will sail off into the sunset after a job well done." A bit over optimistic with some sarcasm thrown in for flavor, eh? On the other hand we have to wonder if the extremes from each sector aren't whittling each other down; which could at some point make it possible for the strengthening government to manage the remnant.