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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (62506)	6/2/2006 1:05:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 110194

monetary gold in china retail shops are still going for 20% above equivalent gold selling in HK retail in banks (spot + 1.5%), so, the reasoning ought to be that rmb should DEVALUE (per your read), and by 15-20%, per my imagination :0)

To: mishedlo who wrote (62506)	6/2/2006 1:49:15 AM
From: clochard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Why would Japanese rate rises end the carry trade? The difference to USD rates is still increasing due to US Rate rises.

To: mishedlo who wrote (62506)	6/2/2006 8:05:37 AM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish I have dumbed down your article to this and look forward to you fixing my interpretation of it: (1) China - in fact - has accelerated its money supply growth and has not stopped. (2) All things being equal - based on (1) - they have created their own mini-bubble - but internal to their country. (3) When we (USA) do stuff like that here (ignoring globalization for a moment) it ultimately leads to wage inflation. (4) So I am surmizing that an accelerated money supply will lead to higher wages in China - would you agree. (5) If/when they de-accelerate their money supply growth that should negatively influence their employment rate %. (6) Because (I assume) their avg wage rate is so low versus USA I do not see this impacting their exports to the USA. If there is a bigger picture here - I missed it. regards, John McCarthy