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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (63158)6/8/2006 7:23:56 PM
From: UncleBigs  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
low energy spx weighting has as much to do with overvalued tech and financials.

low mpg vehicles, reduced driving, a nasty global recession, a mild hurricane season, an iranian settlement can devastate the energy bulls. oil is a commodity where price is extremely sensitive to incremental supply/demand.

I'm a long term energy bull but the downside over the shorter term can be severe. it's best to have plenty of dry powder for a big pullback.



To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (63158)6/8/2006 7:28:54 PM
From: UncleBigs  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on energy. the idea that it's contrarian isn't one of them. Cramer touts energy all the time. It's a crowded bull trade with very low short interest.



To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (63158)6/8/2006 8:02:44 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Actually, the average US car gets worse mileage now that in 1996, but don't tell anyone. And don't tell 'em that Saudi crude output is dropping, either, down to 9.1 million bbl/dy over the past few months. Definitely don't tell 'em to buy SU, COSWF, BTU, VLO, CCJ or CHK, whatever you do!<G>