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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (63658)	6/14/2006 10:35:05 AM
From: sciAticA errAticA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

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To: orkrious who wrote (63658)	6/14/2006 11:29:45 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 11:17 trotsky (frustrated) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "my understanding is that financial cos will be the first to rebound AFTER the Fed pause... " i disagree. the first sector to run once it becomes clear that the yield curve is bound for steepening are the gold stocks. financials act exactly contrary to the popular wisdom - they continue to rise well into a rate hike campaign when by dint of general expectation they SHOULD actually fall, but then fall once the rate cycle reverses when they SHOULD in theory rise. this is exactly what happened in the last three cycles anyway. Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 11:12 trotsky (Hambone@washout) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved mid tier stocks like GG have plunged by 40%+ over the past few weeks. i don't disagree with you that the pm stocks may well fall again after a bounce, but to call for yet another immediate 'washout' after this recent massacre strikes me as a bit extreme. Rydex traders haven't been as bearish as they now are in 3 years. certainly with regard to them, the washout is as total as it is likely to get. the fund is back down to its long term core position holders - everybody else is out. of course the core holders may well ALSO get out - especially if a bear market has begun. however, if the long term bull market remains in force, they are likely to stay put. as a statistically significant microcosm of the money that's trading pm related investments the fund's cash flow ratio is saying that we've run out of sellers provided we're not in a bear market. Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 10:43 trotsky (robnoel) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i wouldn't worry about that - obviously they have ZERO understanding of Arab tribal culture. the idea that you can go around and confiscate the people's guns is laughable - Iraq would totally explode if they tried that. currently anyone aged over 18 is allowed to carry an AK-47 - the only restriction is that one is not allowed to carry more than one full magazine of bullets ( i doubt anyone cares about this restriction ) . the guns are such an ingrained part of the tribal culture that any attempt to take them away is certain to fail spectacularly ( which is similar to every other US initiative in Iraq ) . btw., certainly the people of Iraq would be served well if a democratic political order WOULD succeed there, but this post invasion cooked up justification for the occupation is rightly seen by Iraqis as nothing but a cynical ploy lacking all vestiges of credibility. the aim was to install a puppet government that would 'play ball' , contrary to Saddam's which refused to do so. aside from a handful obsessed ideologues who imagine themselves being on a mission, no-one gives a cr*p if Iraq's government is or isn't 'democratic'. what counts is that it is pliant. Date: Wed Jun 14 2006 10:30 trotsky (Big Bob @ Saudi gold) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved even as someone generally skeptical of conspiracy theories, this looks extremely fishy to me ( if the information is reliable - where is it from? ) . note, if it's true that this gold was used to effect the dump, then the bull market has a a long and prosperous life ahead of it. one of the hallmarks of the 1970's bull were the many attempts by governments to stop it by hook or by crook - all of them ultimately failed to do the trick. on the contrary, i believe these attempts merely egged it on.