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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aleph0 who wrote (202291)	6/15/2006 5:18:20 AM
From: Rink	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

re: In mobile, we are beginning to see what was once unthinkable. Manufacturers are switching to AMD Turion instead of Core (Yonah). Why? It seems to be a combination of factors. Yonah is not 64-bit capable, and will have a short market lifespan. Merom, which is 64-bit capable is going to require a new chipset. So OEMs and ODMs are introducing a few Yonah models, and filing out the line with Turion, Athlon64-M, and mobile Sempron models for now. Will Merom end this window? Probably not. Merom will be close in timing to K8L mobile chips, so that is probably a wash, but Merom will start at the top and migrate downward. It may be two years or more before Intel has a low-end 64-bit laptop chip. So my read is AMD will get a lot of the low-end laptop business, and Intel will hold the (large) business and high-end segments. Mostly agree, with one quite significant objection: Merom isn't close in timing to K8L. Even so I think it'll still get a nice piece of the mobile market (most of what's in between the high end single core 'Merom' and the above medium dual core Merom). A bit more general remark: Like all other DC NGA products their die size is large at 65nm so Intel won't be able to go to all say 33%?? DC/SC until 45nm because of capacity constraints (33% is a wild guess; to invoke a more reasonable number from someone else here I hope). This means that although AMD is behind with shifting the mix of DC/SC it has enough market opportunities apart from low end until Intel gets to 45nm end of 2007. Ramp start of fab 36 end Q1 will help this quarter, ramp start of fab 7 will add to that in Q3. That leads to the question when AMD's mix of DC/SC will be on par with Intel's mix. I'm wondering if Q2 '07 would be a right guess. Regards, Rink