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To: maxncompany who wrote (14428)	6/25/2006 9:00:46 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78416

max I certainly don't know the answers or ramifications if such and such happens .... but I would like to impart a thought .... and perhaps a specious (sp?) one ... lets say our bear market is caused because of the housing sector ... and I cannot quantifiy what that means in terms of MISSING TAX RECEIPT INFLOWS into the USA gover .... and therefore RISING DEFICITS .... because of reducing employemnt leading to reduced payroll leading to reduced spending .... if that happens (and it may not) I think the following - just so you know what I think and could be wrong about - might happen: (1) Big ticket items (Hondas / Cameras / TV's / PC's) demand drops and hurts Taiwan / Japan / and thereabouts .... (2) Trinket Items i.e. the stuff made in China and sold be Walmart .... their (Walmarts) revenue drops off somewhat .... but can't measure it .... how that impacts China I have know idea .... but the point is the DEMAND for goods drops off I am not a believer in the CHINA/INDIA thingie yet ... In fact I think this stupidity .... Walmart NOT China made China .... i.e. per PBS they are bringing in $33 billion a year - or is that a quarter ... its a secret. Not to mention Target, etc. I will argue that Trinket buying will diminish in a recssion but (a) I cannot measure it and (b) I don't have a clue as to how it would impact China. regards, John