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To: Gib Bogle who wrote (14909)	7/1/2006 1:34:01 PM
From: marcos	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78419

Not really, Gib, only following a bit ... what is Coxe saying? ... my general impression is that Amlo is a Lula and not a Chávez, fwiw ... people should look at what he actually did as JdG, working with Slim et al in the fixing up of el Centro - he certainly has not been bad for real estate in el DF ... the sum total of his wealth redistribution has been a small fraction of what kiwis or canucks would call 'the social safety net', all industrialised countries have some form of the dole ... now he is looking for the vote of the campesino, who is very much threatened by the upcoming inflow of subsidised US maize and beans under NAFTA provisions, so a lot of nationalist rhetoric starts there ... would it extend to small canuck miners, probably not imho, and if so not to any great degree ... rhetoric is a campaign thing, and the campaign is over in a few hours Can Amlo win, maybe so, last Reforma poll showed him with a slight edge over Calderón, two per cent or something .... he's got charisma for sure, air of vitality ... even people who support Calderón, like us and every mexpat we know here, see him as a bit wooden ... something like Robert Stanfield, if you know canuck politics of the sixties, except he must have Karl Rove wannabes in the background, it's been a dirty campaign lately, so much so that you wonder if it could backfire ... but i'm not up on the situation, from what little i've read it seems no one else is either, we'll just have to wait and see ... do i think ggc.v for example is threatened - no, and i plan to add mmgg to the same size position ... could their tax/royalty costs get raised ten or fifteen per cent - sure they could, that could happen anywhere One thing that's great this sexenio is that Madrazo and the PRI are running a distant third ... quite satisfying to see them fail to bounce back after one term, means maybe that democracy has a chance Btw, it is customary when using only one name to use that of the father, i.e. López ... Obrador is that of his mother ... but he is called everywhere by his initials, AMLO ... cheers