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To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (134068)	7/3/2006 3:14:21 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

Looking at the weekly SPX a case could be made that from the 2002 low the May high was the end of 3, and a 4 down began then with the A finishing 6/14, and the index now in a B up. stockcharts.com If so, I think the B has more up to go, probably into August, but I'm still holding out for a lower October SPX low (one lower than 6/14). Then the 5 would begin (concurrent with bullish fall seasonality), taking the index up to EOY and beyond. Although I've been long since 6/14 (no wiggle trading, as usual) I've commited less capital than normal, as I think that this leg up has 4-8 weeks to go rather than several months. BTW, have you checked out the new index ETFs from ProFunds? We now have new vehicles to go short in our retirement accounts: PSQ for naz, SH for SPX. Keep them in mind for the next leg down. Corresponding long ETFs are QLD and SSO, which have performed nicely the past two weeks.

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (134068)	7/3/2006 3:37:32 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

Nice chart, MC. Shows a neat little impulse - so far, of about 43 SPX points. What will come out of it - I don't know. It is true that the decline since May was a three-waver, and that the larger uptrend is still unbroken. For the last few years, every time we had such a three wave decline - and we had many - the markets turned around and went on to new highs. It may happen again. As i said before, many sentiment indicators would also support that. Otoh, it's the summer of the bearish year of the Presidential cycle. So, I don't know. No strong convictions on my part here... but I think getting stuck too heavy on the long side may not be safe. Shorter term, a violation of the tops of the recent range (mid-1250's) could be a clear bearish indication. Otoh, a "convincing" consolidation of at least a few days at these levels... followed by a break to new highs... could be clearly bullish in the intermediate term.