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To: wave3rules who wrote (134313)	7/13/2006 11:27:47 AM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Welcome, wave3........Hope you'll stick around...... I am NOT the best person for you to address those kinds of questions to....but maybe someone more expert than I will weigh in on them. I do not try to count the DOW...which I have always sneered at as a defective index.......price-weighted, of all things!!.... But....I would definitely NOT agree that we're still in the bear market that started in 2000.....I don't see any basis for drawing that kind of conclusion from the charts......plain old TA, or EW.....nor in the (whisper......illegal here.....fundamental background...LOL). In general, I think the 2000-2002 decline was corrective.....and that we have resumed a long-term impulsive up.....which may still be in its early stages.....That is not to say, however that we could not see a major corrective decline in the relatively near future....later this year, ot into next year.....

To: wave3rules who wrote (134313)	7/13/2006 12:14:07 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

w3r, if you stick around with us, you'll find out that we have here a diversity of views... that often we have disagreements, and even a little bickering may take place from time to time.... but we all learned to respect each other... and to remain friends at the end of the day.... ;) Anyway, what I am trying to say is that I am not too bullish for the next several months, and in general... I agree with you. What path exactly events will take is not possible to tell now... but the odds are good, imo, that we are in the early stages of a move which should match the 2000-2002 decline.

To: wave3rules who wrote (134313)	7/15/2006 1:47:06 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 209892

personally go with EWI count is this is beginning of wave 3 down going back to 2000 where the bear started I am not sold on that idea yet, but it does look much more possible to me now. EWI has been looking for that move for many many months (years) now so take them with a grain of bear salt.-g/ng However after finally getting around to look at a pile of charts over the last few days (long overdue) I heavily favour a major impulsive down in progress in tech off the spring highs, one which is now in a (3) down as of July 3. A minor corrective up is likely coming but I think we are heading for COMP 1750 at the very least which is the genesis of the big bearish rising wedge on the COMP weekly. After that I will re-evaluate. But here are some thoughts on the $SOX from about a month ago which sums up why I think the return of the secular bear may be premature. However as I posted then, that chart still looks destined for the low 300's, and in the time frames that we trade here would be a nice move. Message 22532877