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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NAG1 who wrote (54443)	7/13/2006 12:25:05 PM
From: NAG1	Respond to of 213184

In a poll, most think that msft won't be a challenge to the ipod. ipodobserver.com Neal

To: NAG1 who wrote (54443)	7/13/2006 12:53:22 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213184

well, I am in AAPL for the Mac and OSX biz vs. ipod (I know a lot more about computer sales vs. small consumer electronics)- however, it seems to me that the problem any alternative is going to have is the itunes dominance. The ipod+itunes relationship really is a bit of a monopoly. The itunes part of the business is really where the value lies imho (this is not conventional wisdom I understand)- Itunes is a superior media file file system, just for simple things like sort by artist,genre,title which is specific to media. For Zune to take hold they need a media file system also which they likely will have, but what about the content- for that they have 2 problems: - current itunes monopoly and paid for content (this is like trying to move people from windows to mac) - new music and record labels wanting more than $.99 which Jobs only got thanks to itunes dominance (msft could never get .99) They seem to recognize the first problem which is why they have the "free copy" from itunes with some wireless mechanism. But that is not ideal- what would be preferable (for Zune) is that they went from itunes to Zune's window software application- because the computer is where Library resides, NOT the device. But that is impossible so Zune users will likely stay on itunes and zap their songs wirelessly. This is likely slower than the direct connect for itunes, and Zune still needs power from somewhere so it still needs to be plugged in to the computer (btw if Zune requires AA batterieslike many Creaf devices it will be a non-starter right there). On the second issue of negotiating with record labels, I don't think there is any chance of getting .99 anymore. Also, Urge was just started with MTV and has gained ZERO traction so the media that was slated for Urge has just been initiated into itunes. Conclusion: itunes is where the value is and its too late to be dethroned but just like Google, you are going to hear everybody and their brother say itunes is going down "any day now" to somebody or some such. MTV-Microsoft duo takes leap onto iTunes's stage By Hiawatha Bray, Globe Staff \| May 17, 2006 boston.com Apple iTunes makes deal with Microsoft's URGE partner for video (June 29) tgdaily.com IOW, Urge was a non starter and received ZERO traffic in a month, and MTV decided to hedge their bets.

To: NAG1 who wrote (54443)	7/13/2006 12:57:10 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213184

If it is for real, there is no doubt that it will attract attention but the problem is right now all we have heard is talk about how great this thing is and nobody has seen one or played with one. No one has any idea about how it will play out for ease of use and how easily it will integrate with media player. You would think that if this was for real, there would be more real hands on information about it. Given the fact that msft can't get vista out this year and now there is an 80% chance that it will get it out by jan 07, I will believe it when I see it that msft can get this piece of hardware out on time. Maybe they are trying to create some early buzz so people won't go out and buy an ipod in its place. JMO though. No argument that Microsoft might be late, though I dont think that the Vista launch will have any effect. I would imagine that they are two entirely different groups with very little overlap (except those working on integration with Windows Media Player). We'll have to wait and see what MSFT comes up with but I dont really buy the argument that because we havent seen some leaked reviews that there is no possibility for a holiday launch. I've heard absolutely nothing on the new iPods but I have no doubt that they are in the pipeline. In contrast, there have been leaked pictures of the Zune along with some comments from accessory makers that they have been approached by Microsoft. Overall, I just think it is premature to dismiss Microsoft as competition. The breadth of their technology allows them to target a variety of new services. The rumors imply that WiFi will allow the sharing of songs (which will be tricky from a DRM persepective) and that this is just the first in a line of devices that will eventually include some sort of Xbox compatibility. I have no diea if any of it is true right now, but there are plenty of areas where they have chance to add some functionality. Slacker