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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5509)	7/20/2006 12:00:12 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5867

yup, I agree. I think ASML had the best report of all I've read about since orders are still going up... rather than simply moderating. Analysts remember 2000 and how they were hitting new records for sales while orders fell off a cliff. If they had a braincell, they'd look at Gotfried's charts and see we don't have the same capacity problems today and the consumer electronics boom is one big reason.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5509)	7/21/2006 3:33:14 AM
From: Wes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

So what's everyone's view of what's going on with the Semi Equipment sector? From looking at Gottfried's charts, it seems average monthly bookings are still well below historical highs. However, (from Cary's table) it seems leading companies like AMAT have been able to grow revenues (and earnings) so that they are near the 2000 peak. It would seem that this would justify higher stock prices than we've seen in the last couple of years (of course, no where near the high levels in 2000). Obviously, the easiest explanation is the prevailing concern is an expected drop off in orders and the typical bust part of the cycle. But another effect that seems to be happening is a contraction of valuations to where they were pre-1997ish, prompted by the perception that the semiconductor industry is now maturing, and products like the PC are nearing saturation. So, while we see revenue and earnings rise, the stock prices stays flat and even declines over time. But when there's bad news or even the perception of bad news, stock prices still decline sharply from their depressed levels. But counterbalancing this is the notion that with the industry maturing, the cap expenditures, etc. would seem to be more rational and the industry would be subject to more moderate swings, rather than the sharp boom-bust cycles of before. And even AMAT in recent months has maintained that they think the cap investments by chipmakers have indeed been "rational" and downplayed the perception of overcapacity and overbuilding. Is there more going on than this? Insights, comments?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5509)	7/23/2006 2:47:46 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 5867

Newberry: No more bookings guidance going forward! Investors and shaheholders request to focus on operational execution etc. shipments, revenue recognition. To me looks like they try to cut off the bookings peak / cycle peak talk that the financial community loves to play so much and focus on earnings and execution. If financial community does not get bookings they might be forced to pay more attention on operational performance rather the annoying cycle peak rahrah which actually started more than seven months ago. (Fitz didn't like it not getting bookings guidance). Expects that at the end of year bookings will be up 15% compared to first half of 2006. A good deal of questions already focusing on margins during downturn Leadtime 8 to 12 weeks!!!!!! Only one pundit made a positive comment about a great quarter Newberry thinks share will increase at 65nm node compared to 90nm node.