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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Budde who wrote (54761)	7/20/2006 4:39:44 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

But for every switch to the mac platform, there are some (more or less) switching away Based on what. I see nothing to support this.

To: Dave Budde who wrote (54761)	7/20/2006 4:44:08 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

What is happening, in my opinion, is existing Mac owners and some contingent of new computer buyers/switchers are buying into the new Intel machines, because well, they are nice and one needs these machines going forward or they'll be stuck high and dry once Apple makes their PPC apps obsolete. This will happen sooner than you think. Once the current buyers all have one or two machines, then the demand will dry up until Apple forces yet another change on us all. Wow, someone actually agrees with me. Scary! Be careful Dave, you may soon be ostricized.

To: Dave Budde who wrote (54761)	7/20/2006 5:24:22 PM
From: NAG1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

<<OK, but this assumes Apple picks up significant market share. There is no data that shows this is happening.>>Dave Actually, there is. I posted this link yesterday. And remember that this quarter they were essentially shipping their best seller only 1 out of the 3 months of the quarter, otherwise, I am sure the numbers would look better. Also remember that there is a significant number of pro desktop users that are now also holding off buying until the systems get refreshed. macobserver.com And then there is this piece macobserver.com Also from the cc, half of the cpu purchasers at Apple's stores are new to the platform. Neal

To: Dave Budde who wrote (54761)	7/20/2006 5:48:18 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

>>Much as I'd like to believe otherwise, this is a blip. It's temporary. And if Apple stumbles just a little, then they'll lose even more market share.<< Dave - Worldwide marketshare for Apple has indeed been falling for years, as cheap Windows computers (with bootleg copies?) are finding large new markets in places like China. Apple doesn't really address the low end, and hasnt benefitted from this. On the other hand, Apple's U.S. market share has been on the increase for the past year or so. That trend in the U.S. appears to be accelerating. You may believe it's a blip, but there is no way, based on charts drawn from historical data, to accurately determine whether this is temporary or not. The first time Apple showed a market share increase in a quarter, just after the Mini was introduced, Don said the increase was just a temporary blip. Instead, it has proven to be fairly well sustained so far, even in the midst of one of those maddening hardware transitions you hate so much. BTW, having made the transition to Intel hardware with my MBP, I have to say it was not nightmarish at all for me. Some issues exist, yes, but they are minor. - Allen

To: Dave Budde who wrote (54761)	7/21/2006 11:46:17 AM
From: Dan Fleuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

"What is happening, in my opinion, is existing Mac owners and some contingent of new computer buyers/switchers are buying into the new Intel machines, because well, they are nice and one needs these machines going forward or they'll be stuck high and dry once Apple makes their PPC apps obsolete. " There seem to be a lot of disconnected thoughts in this statement, so, let's parse it: 1. "existing Mac owners...are buying into the new Intel machines...because ...one needs these machines going forward or they'll be stuck high and dry once Apple makes their PPC apps obsolete" If they were worried about this, why didn't they just buy PC to begin with? If they are just Mac people, why the compelling reason to go out now and buy intel (why not wait?)? Any way you look at it, this group bought the Intel Macs because they really wanted to i.e., the product has a market. I find it disingenuous to hold that all people in this market will rush out right away to satisfy their needs and no one will wait (i.e., 100% satruation of this "submarket" from the get go). Similarly, I find it hard to believe that these people will not be recidivists, i.e, they will represent an ongoing market for future Macintel products. No, in this part of the logic, I just dont' see a downside for Apple. Now, further parsing: 2. "some contingent of new computer buyers/switchers are buying into the new Intel machines, because well, they are nice and one needs these machines going forward or they'll be stuck high and dry once Apple makes their PPC apps obsolete" This doesn't hold together very well logically. Obviously this crowd is not buying Macintel because they are worried Apple will make them obsolete iin the future, so this leaves the following: "some contingent of new computer buyers/switchers are buying into the new Intel machines, because well, they are nice" OK, I like that. So where's the downside, if you're not heavily short? I think the really interesitng question is, given MBP doubling of market share, what is the history of MBP buyers? ie.e, what % of them are current mac owners, what % new to computers and what % current PC users? I know that Apple knows these numbers. And I am disappointed they don't break them out. 50% of buyers being first time Mac buyers overall isn't much help. We really need this number for MBP. All the best, ;-) Dan