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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (53778)	7/24/2006 12:36:10 PM
From: John Metcalf	Respond to of 116555

"Everyone thinks their area is different, immune or whatever" Here in the low-cost Midwest, there is less money to be lost in a real estate crash than in more expensive parts of the country. Nevertheless, I just renewed house insurance that set an insured value 50% above the current market value of my house. It didn't make sense, until I realized that replacement cost is very close to the house value set by the insurer. People have been able to borrow funds equal to construction cost or replacement cost, but market prices are below the level of debt. Of course, having a low cost basis means that fewer Midwesterners will fail to make payments than those who live on the coasts. We're not immune to a slowdown; we just have a shorter fall than others.

To: mishedlo who wrote (53778)	7/24/2006 2:20:32 PM
From: Incitatus	Respond to of 116555

"Lights Out in Atlanta"? How about "Closing Time for the Thai Thai"?

To: mishedlo who wrote (53778)	7/24/2006 4:39:19 PM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish: It will take a lot of "yets" because so far it isn't a national thing. If you are waiting for aggregate prices to go down (at least in this area), you will have a long wait. It doesnt matter what we wish, it just matters what the data says. Will building slow down - yes, will prices stabilze - will somebody lose money, yes, will some make money - yes, but insofar as the doomsayers crowing about aggregate prices going down 10% or more, that seems to be a huge stretch.

To: mishedlo who wrote (53778)	7/24/2006 4:50:12 PM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish: It will take a lot of "yets" because so far it isn't a national thing. If you are waiting for aggregate prices to go down (at least in this area), you will have a long wait. It doesnt matter what we wish, it just matters what the data says. Will building slow down - yes, will prices stabilze - will somebody lose money, yes, will some make money - yes, but insofar as the doomsayers crowing about aggregate prices going down 10% or more, that seems to be a huge stretch.