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Technology Stocks : ASML Holding NV -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (1167)	7/26/2006 12:29:31 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42736

My particular issue goes a little further, though. Namely, that I think the semiconductor space has gotten even harder to forecast. It seems to me that lead times and inventory levels have continued to get shorter and shorter, leading me to think that nobody has as good an idea about what the next quarter will look like, let alone the next year, as in prior cycles. let's assume you order multi million $ piece of equipment: what would yo prefer? A shorter or a longer leadtime? Obviously a shorter leadtime allows you to time your purchase and consequently the risk of cancelation should be reduced

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (1167)	7/26/2006 1:05:29 PM
From: niek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42736

Re: By Stephen D. Simpson, CFA The business of selling the equipment that allows the Intels (Nasdaq: INTC - News) and AMDs of the world to make their chips has always been volatile and cyclical. But if what I'm seeing is accurate, it looks like things are getting even more unstable -- which probably won't be great news for shareholders of companies like ASML Holding. Who is this Simpson? CFA? Is this something like MBE (Member of the British Empire)? I never heard of him, so he definitly isn’t a lithoguru like Chris Mack. So expect the unexpected from writers like Simpson who needs to write articles like this to get the money to pay their living. Now back to business. He sees things getting even more unstable. He’s wrong, because foundries and chipcompanies are ordering equipment only when they really need it, when their customers really buy chips. So, the main driver for this is economic growth. If this economic growth remains above 3.5% Y/Y, and I see no reason to doubt the words of some economists, the semisector will steadily grow with a rate of 8% to 10% every year, at least until 2015. This 8% to 10% growth is sufficient for a steady growth for equipment companies like ASML. ASML is extending its marketshare to 70% in 2010. It’s marketshare is about 56% today. By the end of next year ASML will have a marketshare in Japan of more than 27%. Today it’s only 6%. The growth of this marketshare is a stable foundation for ASML, so mister Simpson, explain to me why you see things getting more unstable.