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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (4648)	7/28/2006 1:00:20 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8420

>>> I don't have any metrics to even take a stab at that one. I think that's a pretty important question. If, for example, there are going to be 30 million SDARS subscribers in 2011, split between XM & SIRI, that would be different from, for example, only having 15 million. While all the talk about churn is nice, the reality is that if the market develops for 30M or 40M SDARS subscribers, there are only two places for those people to go. And slightly more than half are going to end up at XM and slightly less than half at Sirius, most likely. If you believe these businesses will fail, you must have some idea that these numbers of 30M or 40M subscribers won't be reached, no? So, how many DO you think will show up? Can't you put a range on it? You've indicated you believe XM's shareholders will be wiped out, so, that suggests Chapter 11 which would seem to imply that you think they'll never get to a breakeven volume, right? Would 10M subs be enough to keep them out of bankruptcy court? 15M? What would it take? You've said you don't shoot from the hip so you must have some ideas.