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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (22694)	7/28/2006 7:44:06 PM
From: fahrenheit451	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Math Comparing Brinker, who doesn't time the bond market, to Bond market timers is more like comparing Warren Buffets performance numbers to all the market timers out there and concluding that Buffet is the best timer even though he doesn't time the stock market.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (22694)	7/28/2006 7:44:15 PM
From: Honey_Bee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Well, I don't claim to totally understand your point, math junkie, but I think the fact that Bob Brinker rated ANYTHING for timing the bond market is ridiculous. I just can't decide who is more ridiculous--Mark Hulbert or Bob Brinker...Maybe you can give me an equation to help out. LOL!

To: Math Junkie who wrote (22694)	7/29/2006 9:40:20 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

I think Hulbert's table that shows Brinker, who doesn't time bonds, outperformed all the bond timers when evaluated for timing only for the past five years, is certainly a good answer for those who like to complain every time a Brinker-recommended bond fund goes down. Why would that matter? It doesn't change the fact Brinker recommended something that went down. You think his rating matters to those who follow his advice? Bill Gross is the top rated bond manager on the planet with over 600B under management and he still jokes about his terrible prediction for DOW 5,000 he made a few years ago. Unlike Brinker, Gross doesn't need to cover up his mistakes. I think Hulbert's data that that puts people who make no attempt to time the bond market at the top of the list is simply proof that attempting to market time any market leads to under performance. Consider Hulbert did two long term market timing studies I've found. One was for 25 years done in 2005 and every stock market timer, including Brinker, under performed. He did another study back in 1998 for the period 1988 to 1998 that showed the same thing... that the "top rated timers" under performed buy and hold. Hulbert's recent study that only looks at the past 5 years and covers 2002, the worst year of the bear market, shows that on average timers match the market in bear market periods where, perhaps by chance, some do better and some do worse.