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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gol Na who wrote (31873)	8/2/2006 3:59:49 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95596

pretty true! FWIW, ALTR is doing well since buying at $16.10. I think that was on Cary's list... I had to wait for valuation to catch up with reality...

To: Gol Na who wrote (31873)	8/2/2006 4:43:53 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95596

How does one judge capitulation? Unfortunately what you, Gottfried, Brian, Cary or anyone who posts on the threads does with their trading won't answer that question. Instead look for the Investors Intelligence Poll to have more bears than bulls: schaeffersresearch.com investorsintelligence.com Look for a huge spike higher in the volatility indices: investorshub.com And look for a series of 90% downside days to be followed closely by a 90% upside day or 2 80% upside days. thestreet.com SNIP: At market bottoms, you have a completely different pattern in which the dominate emotion is fear and panic. And what we found at market bottoms, for example, was that in a typical major market bottom, you see a series of 90% downside days, 90% of all the volume, 90% of all the price changes are on the downside. Now the interesting thing that we found was that you can have a whole series of 90% downside days. During the 1973 and 1974 bear market, there were 15 90% downside days. Over how long a period of time? Over about 15 or 16 months. So you don't necessarily buy the first 90% down day. No. And that is the really critical point about market bottoms, is that you can have signs of panic-selling and it doesn't really mean anything. The only thing that will turn a market around and head it higher, is when buyers are wiling to step up to the plate and begin to buy. The real signal of a major market bottom is to first see a series of 90% downside days, which say, investors are panicking, and in their panic, they are exhausting the desire to sell, because everybody that wanted to sell will have done it. But the key ingredient is to watch for a 90% upside day, indicating the prices have dropped low enough. So you were saying the first 90% up day is a sign that sentiment has shifted dramatically. That's right.