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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (22985)	8/3/2006 11:35:19 AM
From: shres	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Kirk, that is pure nonsense. Malkiel was talking about 88% of managed funds not beating the market over the past TWO DECADES. Mr. Mathematics says..."Do the math... He did not say 100%, he said 88%. That means 12% beat the index funds." Yes Kirk but that's not the same 12% consistently year after year. Not a single managed fund beat the averages for two decades. Not one. Here you again claim that "...many do beat the averages over the long haul. Quibbling over 12 or 15% is not the issue." which is just patently false. Show me "many" managed funds who have consistently beaten the averages over the long haul. You just can't do it because they ain't there. Bill Miller comes closest and even he says that was because he was just lucky.

To: Kirk © who wrote (22985)	8/3/2006 8:26:24 PM
From: dijaexyahoo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

kirk said: <<I could be off a few percent, but I think the numbers today would be roughly 80%, not 88% but the key is many do beat the averages over the long haul. Quibbling over 12 or 15% is not the issue.>> --Kirk, you're avoiding the MAIN POINT of this discussion, which is: a) Most experts say market timing is not likely to improve buying-and-holding of a major index over long time periods. b) Most experts say picking mutual funds or individual stocks is not likely to improve buying-and-holding of a major index over long time periods. Those are facts. It's inconsistent for you to bash brinker for trying to market time, while you yourself are trying to beat the market with stock picking. Personally, as I've said before, I believe there is a time and place for market timing, and I believe I can beat the market by buying mutual funds and individual stocks. Even if I am proved wrong (which is VERY possible) I don't really care, since it is fun to try to beat the market, and I am at critical mass anyway. I do think that was an excellent point you made about Cisco being in the S&P in the late 90s. There was no index fund in my 401k in the 90s (which was strange, since it was all Vanguard funds). But by the time I had learned all about index funds vs. managed funds, etc., I had the same reaction as you. Why would I want to invest in the S&P and put my money in a bunch of vastly over-valued stocks? That's one of the reasons I was able to ride out the bear so well. The few funds I was holding when the bear really hit were value funds. I didn't have ANY of those over-valued mega-cap stocks.