david, you cannot be serious about what qcom distributes?
you may call it dividends, i term it bait.
chugs, J
In the mean time, a Stratfor update from the front
Geopolitical Diary: Slow Going in Lebanon
Israeli forces continued an apparently slow and systematic entry into southern Lebanon, by all reports still penetrating fairly shallowly into the region, at least with regular forces. In the meantime, Hezbollah fired more than 200 rockets at Israel on Thursday, causing a number of casualties, some fatal. The Israeli airstrikes clearly have not shut down the rocket attacks thus far, nor has the ground penetration.
Against this backdrop, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah made a statement containing three messages. First, he warned that if Israel should attack Beirut, Hezbollah would attack Tel Aviv. Second, he said Israel is placing heavy pressure on Hezbollah forces in the south. Third he offered to halt rocket attacks on Israel in return for an end to the air campaign in Lebanon. Since Israel will not fight without air support, this was, in effect, a call for a cease-fire.
Given the intense pressure Nasrallah's forces are under, this statement makes sense. Hezbollah wants a cease-fire. It has delivered rocket fire on Israel, it has fought Israeli troops on relatively even terms, it has maintained its attacks on Israel in spite of a three-week air campaign. Hezbollah is in the best position it is going to be in. A cease-fire now would establish it as the only credible fighting force against Israel in the region and reposition it politically. There is nothing else Hezbollah can achieve with further fighting. Therefore a cease-fire offer makes perfect sense.
Israel, on the other hand, cannot allow the fighting to stop at this point, for the same reason that Hezbollah wants to stop it. If the war ended now, Israel would have failed to defeat an Arab army for the first time since its founding. If Hezbollah can impose a stalemate on Israel, then reality will prevail. But Israel does not believe that Hezbollah can accomplish that, and therefore is increasing the aggressiveness of its operations.
Israel's problem is twofold. First, from where we sit, the operation looks to be going slowly. That could be because Israel is moving cautiously to reduce Hezbollah positions with minimal casualties to Israeli forces. Alternatively, it could be because Hezbollah is putting up stiff resistance. It is hard to tell from a distance, but Nasrallah's statement seemed to concede what logic would indicate, which is that Hezbollah is fighting hard but is unlikely to win in the south.
The second problem is that simply taking Lebanon up as far as the Litani River achieves neither of Israel's goals. One of these goals is to eliminate the threat of rocket attacks. To do this even for the short-range rockets, Israel must move beyond the Litani, by at least 10 miles; to completely eliminate the threat it must move substantially further north, at least into the Bekaa Valley. Its other stated goal is to crush Hezbollah as a fighting force. That means eliminating Hezbollah forces not only south of Beirut but in the Beirut area and in the Bekaa Valley. If Israel simply stops at the Litani, it has only a partial solution. On the other hand, the Israelis have not even finished Hezbollah in the south.
One of the things that the Israelis said Thursday was that there is an intelligence problem. There were stories in the Arab press that the Israeli raid on the hospital in Baalbek was intended to capture Nasrallah -- who indeed was captured, but it was the wrong Hassan Nasrallah, captured while playing cards with friends. We don't know if this story is true, but we do know that Israel has not been able to shut down Hezbollah rocket fire, which is more an intelligence problem than a targeting issue. There are too many rockets in too many unknown places.
Meanwhile, Uzi Dayan -- former commander of Sayeret Matkal, an elite unit -- said Israel needs "bargaining chips" in the form of Hezbollah leaders, in order to secure the return of captured Israeli soldiers. That was an interesting statement, not because it was official -- it wasn't -- but because it indicated the mood of senior Israeli military leaders. If you are looking for bargaining chips, you expect to be bargaining.
Situation Reports
1139 GMT -- LEBANON -- Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki "went over the limit" in implying he had reservations about Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's seven-point plan to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, Siniora told the French-language newspaper L'Orient Le Jour in an interview published Aug. 4. During his recent visit to Beirut, Mottaki had said there was no rush to discuss questions beyond an immediate cease-fire.
1117 GMT -- UNITED KINGDOM -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair delayed his vacation Aug. 4 to work on a U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at ending the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
1112 GMT -- LEBANON -- Hezbollah said its forces destroyed an Israeli tank and a bulldozer near the southern Lebanese town of Markaba on Aug. 4. The group also said it destroyed an Israeli tank and armored personnel carrier in Aita el-Shaab.
1109 GMT -- LEBANON -- Israeli warplanes reportedly destroyed three bridges north of Beirut in Christian areas of Lebanon on Aug. 4, killing five people, including a Lebanese army soldier, and wounding 12.
1104 GMT -- LEBANON -- Hezbollah guerrillas killed five Israeli troops in fighting Aug. 4 near the southern Lebanese town of Markaba, Al Arabiya reported. An Israeli military spokesperson confirmed "a few casualties," without specifying whether fatalities were involved. The spokesperson also said Israeli troops killed 10 Hezbollah guerrillas, though there was no immediate comment from Hezbollah on the claim.
1044 GMT -- IRAQ -- Tens of thousands of Iraqi Shia wearing white shrouds rallied in support of Hezbollah in Baghdad on Aug. 4. Rally organizer the al-Sadrite Bloc claimed that 250,000 people attended the demonstration in the al-Sadr City district in the Iraqi capital. The Iraqi Defense Ministry approved the rally.
1040 GMT -- LEBANON -- U.S. Assistant Secretary of State David Welch will visit Beirut, Lebanon, on Aug. 5 to hold discussions with Lebanese officials in an effort end to the Israeli-Hezbollah war, Reuters reported Aug. 4, citing Lebanese political sources.
1020 GMT -- ISRAEL -- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz are at odds over whether to expand the ground offensive in Lebanon, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported Aug. 4. According to the report, Peretz is of the view that extending Israel Defense Forces' control to all areas south of the Litani River would neutralize the threat from Hezbollah's short-range rockets. Olmert, however, believes that doing so would not address the problem of the longer-range missiles in Hezbollah's arsenal.
1029 GMT -- LEBANON -- Top Lebanese parliament member Saad al-Hariri called on Russia on Aug. 4 to use its influence to press Israel into accepting an immediate cease-fire. The issue reportedly was raised during al-Hariri's meeting with Russian national security chief Igor Ivanov.
1025 GMT -- MALAYSIA -- Malaysian Defense Forces chief Anwar Mohamad Nor says Kuala Lumpur is finalizing plans to dispatch 1,000 troops for peacekeeping efforts in Lebanon once a cease-fire is in place, Bernama news agency reported Aug. 4.
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