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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (195304)	8/6/2006 6:20:11 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "That's not how it actually works in countries that have some political reform going, like Jordan or Bahrain. Sure, they hate Israel, but when reform happens local politics suddenly becomes a lot more interesting than the Israeli/Pal fight many miles away." Jordan's peaceful relations with Israel are due not to a love of Israel, but instead due to a fear of it. For example, see this recent poll on the popularity of bin Laden: Confidence in bin Laden as World Leader "a lot or some" Jordan, 2003: 55% Jordan, 2005: 60% Is Islamic Extremism a Threat to Your Country? Jordan: Yes: 10% Jordan: No: 87% Democracy can Work Here Jordan, 2002: 63% Jordan, 2003: 69% Jordan, 2005: 80% pewresearch.org Israel is showing itself to be a paper tiger in Lebanon. This means that in the Arab states, the fear of Israel will be decreased. Now human nature being what it is, it is not terribly unlikely that this decreased fear will lead to rash actions. Now go back and look again at the polling results above. Fortunately for Israel, political reform in Jordan is still limited. They only recently were allowed to form political parties. Of course the leading party is Islamic. And the population still does not choose the Prime Minister. But hey, the trend is not good. Arab democracy is simply not Israel's friend. Those peace treaties that Israel has were not signed by democracies. Democracies are some of the toughest opponents in real war. They may look soft and easy but they tend to put up more of a fight than their enemies expect. Germany and Japan were surprised by this. But what's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. -- Carl P.S. I won't even bother looking up Bahrain. They are too far away, too small, and too rich to be a realistic threat to Israel.