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Politics : Sioux Nation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (75601)	8/7/2006 1:13:06 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 361235

This will mostly be a West Coast problem for gasoline. Gasoline is a regional market, whereas crude is global, so I only expect a small increase in the price of crude, all else being equal. The loss of 400K barrels per day is about the same disruption as hurricane Ivan in 2004 (but this might last longer) and that led to about a $5 per barrel increase in spot crude prices. So I expect something like that (crude is up $1.25 already). A release from the SPR will help. The problem for West Coast gasoline is they need to get the crude to the refineries. That means some tankers will have to be diverted from somewhere else - and probably means less supply while the logistics are being worked out. Right now unleaded prices on the West Coast are $3.20 per gallon. Four bucks is probably too high, but something like $3.50 to $3.60 per gallon wouldn't surprise me.