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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (54559)	8/10/2006 12:54:29 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Once Bitten, Twice Shy I don't know how you went from not shorting Google to not getting marrried. Ray the quote does talk about marriage - but I brought up my old friend Baldie to show how that quote also applies to traders/investors who should learn from past mistakes. He should not have bet his entire financial future on a few shorts in 99. Just as you point out with Jay - he can take amazing risk on a penny stock because he is on very different footing from most of us here. Baldie used to work for Sun Microsystems I believe - no fool. The wall street crooks whipsawed him out of his money and his correct prediction - he was not counting on thier ability to keep the insanity going as long as it did - there is an old saying - the markets can remain irrational longer than an investor can remain solvent eh? I believe he has done the same thing with GOOG again in 2006 - the quote applies to him - wishful thinking in a short that he should already have learned the hard lessons from. You point out that even wise well connected investors like Jay have lost money shorting the mighty GOOG. GOOG is not your typical mortgage or homebuilder type stock - sure it may be highly overvalued - but it still captures the big money from many major funds - until they are willing to exit GOOG in droves I don't see it emulating the tech stocks that went from 800 to 5 dollars in a year like say a lucent or JDSU or BRCM or such. Perhaps large money managers believe GOOG still has many backroom deals going and will eventually take massive market share from the amazons, ebay's and MSFT's of the world and have no plans to move major money out of GOOG stock - but Baldie knows GOOG is going to be double digits by the end of the year - how can he know this? Even if he is one of the best brightest minds at Sun I don't see how he can know this. I would not be taking out any GOOG shorts at this time for anything more than a quick trade - I don't see it as an effective long term short and hold strategy like other much more qualified shorts.