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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (8166)	8/11/2006 10:27:16 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217716

Hello Ray, since Ron and I first exchanged post on the USD, gold and USA as destination of investment Message 14861804 , the USD is down by a whole lot. I am betting Ron will be proven wrong again over the coming 5 years. Chugs, J

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (8166)	8/11/2006 10:37:45 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 217716

I'd be more pessimistic than Hawkmoon but not as pessimistic as Jay. Guess I am a born centrist :)

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (8166)	8/11/2006 10:47:57 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217716

Ray: demise? no! return to the natural size. Message 22530780 In the Thread, most, there people digress on how this returmn to the natural size is going to be. Keeping in mind that people who deal with a lot of money are very conservative and don't like radical chnages and it is people with a lot of money that drives the world. I think more like the UK returned to its natural size albeit over a long period of time. Some think this return is going to be more traumatic and will be quite sudden.

To: Riskmgmt who wrote (8166)	8/11/2006 11:15:30 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217716

What you posted makes a lot of sense. It is draws conclusions 180 degrees from the common view on most of the boards here lately. Which is dollar is toast, US economy is going into recession or depression. China is going to replace the US as the supreme power etc, etc. Therefore, I find your post very simulating and thought provoking. China may SOMEDAY rival the US, but who's going to risk putting Billions of dollars of capital in Chinese banks, given their current lack of transparency? They'll make their money there, and then move it out of the country because they never know when the Fascist leadership (they are really no longer Communist, IMO) will usurp their ability to transfer it out of that country, or just do something stupid like go to war against Taiwan. Japan would be an alternative "storehouse" for this capital waiting to be deployed in a future investment, but the yield on JGBs is minimal, and Japan faces a national debt that equates to 140% of its annual GDP and an aging demographic (which reduces the number of people they are able to tax in order to pay off that debt). And even the Eurobonds have risk because Europe is a confederation, with the potential for political and economic uncertainty/turmoil and vast unfunded social liabilities for their aging population. Place on top of this the fact that the US still represents 30% of the global economy, despite having only 5% of the world population, and it's pretty clear that economic tragedy for the US spells economic DOOM for those economies who base their growth upon exporting to the United States. So who has an interest in killing the "goose that's laying the golden egg"? One more point. For countries like China to economically rival the US, they will require a system that disseminates more economic power to their people. And shifting that balance of power from the center to the periphery of Chinese society means that the consumers will increase their power over the political elite, the "Communists/Fascists" who have benefitted the most from this injection (vaccination?) of capitalist fervor. And when people have economic power, it's not a far stretch for them to want that power to extend to political power than addresses their personal interests. And those personal interests are more than likely to conflict with the interests of the political elite currently in charge of the China government. So where would you put all of the profits you've been making in China, were you one of their fledgling capitalists? Hawk