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To: Spekulatius who wrote (24633)8/19/2006 12:37:43 AM
From: gcrispin  Respond to of 78752
 
Interesting that you mentioned MDT. One stock that I own and have posted about from time to time is NPTH. The stock has done well the last year.

finance.yahoo.com

But I think it could still be considered a bargain in its space on a price to book, price to sales, and enterprise value to sales basis.

finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com

Furthermore, the company is currently spending an extraordinary amount of its revenues on research and development, probably fifty percent more than their historical norm, so some earnings have been masked by the large R&D line item.

John Hartig is the new CEO and he has brought to the company a more bottom line approach to developing all of the opportunities they have on their plate. David Grenz came out of retirement from MDT to head up their leads division. The company is currently working on developing a minimally invasive epicardial lead. Epicardial leads have a zero failure rate vs. endocardial leads which have been projected to have a failure rate as high as thirty percent. The problem is that epicardial leads need to be place through a surgical operation. So if this procedure could be moved to a cath lab, it would result in increased sales. NPTH is currently exploring partnering with a big medical device company and I wouldn't be surprised if they sign a deal with MDT. The epicardial lead project is two to three years in the making, but NPTH has other products for the end of this year as well as the beginnin of next year.

Of course, the problem with NPTH is that it is a small cap with a lack of liquidity. That is something to consider. But I believe the company will grow both organically and through acquisitions.

Regarding MDT, you might be interested a recent Merrill Lynch survey of the sector. Below is a portion of their report.

Merrill Lynch

MEDICAL-TECHNOLOGY REVENUE GROWTH has slowed dramatically with just a 4% gain expected in the second quarter (versus a 15% gain in 2003-2004). But after sluggish results in the first half, we look for sales momentum to rebound to the 7% vicinity in the second half of 2006 and 10% in 2007.

Sales growth will actually slow sequentially in the second quarter versus the first quarter owing in part to a further slowdown in the High Power market. [High Power devices include cardio-inverter defibrillators, or ICDs, and cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators, or CRTDs.]

Revenue momentum looks poised to stage a rebound, albeit somewhat modest, beginning in the third quarter and continuing into 2007. The expected acceleration in sales growth is noteworthy given the historically high correlation between reported med-tech revenue gains and the relative performance of the stocks versus the Standard & Poor's index of 500 stocks.

Earnings growth in the second quarter of 2006 of 2% looks anemic, but is heavily skewed by Boston Scientific. But Boston Scientific and Abbott's acquisition of Guidant (Abbott purchased Guidant's Vascular Intervention franchise, while Boston Scientific acquired the rest of the business) and the resulting earnings dilution have significantly skewed results for the overall group.

Excluding results for Boston Scientific (with earnings expected to decline 41% in the second quarter) and Abbott (just a 2% increase in second-quarter net income forecast), we look for second-quarter earnings to increase 9% with full-year gains pegged at 11% (excludes Guidant from 2005 results for comparative purposes).

We expect 80% of the companies we cover to top the forecast of 4% second-quarter revenue growth with approximately half the group projected to deliver solid double-digit revenue gains. And note that Abbott's reported revenue growth is being adversely impacted by the change in accounting for certain distributed drugs, partly offset by the acquisition in April of Guidant Vascular Intervention; excluding these items Abbott's second-quarter revenue growth is estimated at 9%.

Admittedly, earnings growth for a number of companies is below trend line (Zimmer Holdings, Biomet, Medtronic, St. Jude, Johnson & Johnson), but in each case we expect an acceleration going forward.

We like Medtronic's diversified sales base, solid double-digit sales and earnings growth in fiscal 2007-fiscal 2010 and consensus earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates that are at the low end of Medtronic's targets. The biggest risk is the lack of a rebound in the High Power market (which makes up 25% of Medtronic's revenue) and reimbursement cuts.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (24633)8/24/2006 1:59:15 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78752
 
I'll take a little more YRCW now.

finance.yahoo.com

New low today. Perhaps integrating their recent acquisition may be more difficult than mgmt. expected. Stock looks to me to be a buy though, based just on metrics I'm using.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (24633)8/29/2006 9:08:23 PM
From: gcrispin  Respond to of 78752
 
Regarding MDT

THREE LONGTIME MEDTRONIC DIRECTORS purchased shares of the medical-devices maker, which has been giving investors heart palpitations amid concern over the health of the defibrillator market.

Five days ago, Jack Schuler, Michael Bonsignore and William Brody collectively spent $1.34 million to buy 29,000 shares in the first open-market purchases by Medtronic insiders in over two years, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares were priced from $46.19 to $46.30 each.

Medtronic had 1.15 billion shares outstanding as of June 23.

The company didn't return calls seeking comment.

Medtronic shares have steadily declined since the start of the year, declining 20% year-to-date compared to a 9% drop in the Dow Jones U.S. Medical Equipment Index and a 4% gain in the DJ U.S. Total Market Index. Rival devices-maker St. Jude is down 28% so far this year.

With the stock hammered, Ben Silverman, director of research at InsiderScore.com, says "the directors' buying is a nice show of confidence."

"It's a good long-term signal," he adds. "When you look at buying like this with two years of guidance, these [directors] feel very comfortable with the guidance and position as to where the company is going."

Guidant's safety recall for its medical devices and concern that the U.S. government would slash medical reimbursements for medical devices (resolved this summer with slight cuts) have created an overhang on Medtronic shares.

However, Les Funtleyder, Miller Tabak & Co.'s health-care strategist, says the real problem has been the "unrealistic" growth rate of the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) market. Medtronic recently lowered its guidance for fiscal 2007 and 2008.

Rather than 20%, he expects annual growth rate for these devices, which make up about a quarter of Medtronic's revenue, to be in the high-single or low-double digits.

Meanwhile, the decline in Medtronic shares has raised speculation that the leading defibrillator maker could become a takeover target, particularly after Johnson & Johnson lost its bid for Guidant to Boston Scientific.

Funtleyder, though, points out that Medtronic's management is against the idea of a takeover. With Johnson & Johnson, he notes that there "is too much overlap" between the two companies' operations and would likely require them to sell off too many assets to gain regulatory approval for the deal to be feasible.

For now, Medtronic's growth should be slow and steady, which "reflects the long-term outlook" the directors are affirming with their purchases, says Funtleyder. He won't recommend buying shares unless they fall closer to $40 or growth picks up.

Medtronic insiders last purchased shares in June 2004 when Schuler, a director since 1990 and chair of the corporate governance committee, acquired 40,000 shares in the open market for $2.1 million. The stock was trading at around $53.

Last week, Schuler bought 25,000 shares for nearly $1.2 million, increasing his holdings to nearly 200,000 shares, including options and his wife's 8,800 shares.

Schuler has also been chairman of Stericycle, a medical-waste treatment and recycling company, since 1990 and chairman of Ventana Medical Systems, which makes medical-diagnostic systems, since 1995. Previously, he served as president and chief operating officer of health-care-products company Abbott Laboratories.

Bonsignore, who was appointed a director in 1999 before retiring as chairman and chief executive of Honeywell International in 2001, made his first Medtronic transaction in five years. He bought 3,000 shares for $138,800 on behalf of a personal trust, increasing his overall holdings to about 64,000 shares.

Fellow director, Brody, who joined the board in 1998 and has been the president of Johns Hopkins University for a decade, doled out $46,300 to buy 1,000 shares. He beneficially owns nearly 74,000 shares. Brody last purchased shares in December 1999.

Neither Bonsignore nor Brody has ever sold Medtronic shares. Schuler last sold shares in June 1999.

Given Medtronic has a $50 billion market cap, InsiderScore.com's Silverman says "you are going to have serious experience on the board and these guys have pretty exceptional pedigrees."

Medtronic directors are encouraged to hold shares but are not required to, although they must retain 75% of the shares acquired through options for at least three years. The company has indicated in its filings that its management team meets the minimum stock-ownership thresholds as stipulated by Medtronic's corporate guidelines.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (24633)9/5/2006 10:38:31 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78752
 
Viacom has some serious management issues, IMO:
marketwatch.com

I initially liked Redstone as a somewhat responsible owner of VIA. Recently I have more and more doubt regarding his judgement:

1) While not related to VIA Redstone's investment in badly managed MWY seems pretty stupid especially considering his stock purchases at around 20$/share (now around 7$)

2) Canning Tom Cruise is one thing and maybe a sound business decision but announcing the reasons like Redstone did is going to cost him when trying to find new talent. Even worse, this would have been Freston's job to do what Redstone did and was one reason why Freston left, IMO.

3) I predict that Frestons departure will be followed by more departures. Freston is a founder of MTV and has been with the company for 20 years. I don't think he will have much trouble to find new employment and draw management talent from VIA.

3) VIA stock may be setting up as a bargain again but i regard todays weakness as justified.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (24633)9/19/2006 9:50:18 AM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78752
 
Sold MXIM before market open today at around 31$ on earnings miss. Overall exited this position about flat. Mr market has been correct about this one.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (24633)9/27/2006 2:54:57 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78752
 
Upping my position a little in trucker YRCW.

Somebody's got to deliver all the imported products arriving at our ports to be sold during Christmas season.

Seems to be doing 15% roe past couple years. Looking like about a 7 p/e.

finance.yahoo.com

Some negatives too of course. Integration issues with strategy of growth by acquisition. Also the debt from purchasing the companies. Being a union shop is a plus and minus.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (24633)10/23/2006 10:26:09 AM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78752
 
Sold some EBAY to reduce overweight position. Pretty nice turnaround for the stock after a taxing decline.