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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2235)8/20/2006 2:58:22 PM
From: ecrire  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50307
 
The summary is that worldwide liquidity constraint will cause recessions, inflation beaten, and all commodity investments should therefore be liquidated.I think an argument can be made that economic slowdowns(not recessions) may occur, that the effect on commodities may not be severe, also this is a congressional election year and the cynic in me thinks the administration will do what it can to promote the idea of a healthy, vibrant economy.



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (2235)8/20/2006 9:23:08 PM
From: moonraker1  Respond to of 50307
 
Bubbles? Bubbles are usually accompanied by multiple All-Time Highs. Some commodity prices have gone up like 'Copper', but most commodities are far below their all-time highs. The 'MAY' Correction in the metals analysis doesn't address the fundamental underpinnings of why we entered a Bull Commodity Market. Mines continue to deplete, it's almost impossible to get Engineers, Workers, and Production Machinery. They can't even get Rail Cars to move production. Nobody invested in production for over 20 years.

Too much of price appreciation will get 'DUMPED' onto speculators that know ZILCH! You put all Hedge Funds in the World together, could effect the Markets for about 20 minutes. Equities are probably heading south, this is not say Commodities are not vulnerable to a correction. I'd be much more worried about the Equity Markets than the Commodity Markets. The Stock Market will go down more and stay down longer. In the 2001, 9/11 correction commodities went down less and started going back up First. Commodities will be in a Bubble someday, maybe 2017. People who talk about Bubbles don't know the markets.

At present, 76 million baby boomers are entering a stage in which their most pressing needs will revolve around having adequate income in retirement. In past years, they were told to put their money in stocks and bonds, with a sensible allocation of cash. But in a different global economic environment, commodities could well Trump all three.

Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
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