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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jennifersilversun who wrote (59607)	8/21/2006 7:38:00 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 312466

I think that it is these types of markets that seemingly infallible market trading systems might fail in. The fact of the matter is none knows and only in hindsight is someone right. It is a shame these pundits do not assign probabilities to their calls, because it almost seems more intelligent to be slightly long or slightly short in this kind of market. Which brings me to my own position. I have a very large physical PM position (3x my equities) and my miner shares are over half of my portfolio. BUT, I think you can trade shortterm to enhance returns and thats what I'm doing. I don't know if Chan is right or not. Will CBs dump 169 tons of gold on the market tomorrow? Will Iran close the Straits Friday? Will the Eurozone pause? etc etc There are too many variables here to enable someone to take a strong position. Unfortunately as Chan's signals don't capture the entire move, when the length of the move shortens his system has more risk. So, Chan was right on Friday night but I had already done the trade Thursday to Friday. By Monday am Iran had stated their position and gold was back. The Marketwatch signals were right and when Chan wrote bis piece he was right. I don't think gold is over. I do think this correction is short. I also think there are many many conflicting variables influencing the signals now.

To: jennifersilversun who wrote (59607)	8/22/2006 1:57:26 AM
From: Mario :-)	Respond to of 312466

< So does that mean that you think Chan's call is wrong? It's my understanding that he basically believes gold is over. > Chan can't be wrong... kinnda. <g> Look, you must differentiate betwen his analysis and his trade signals. Analysis is theory. It may be. It may go. Educated guesses... Guesses with better odds to happen. That's all. But he trade his set-up's regardless what analysis say. He is keep repeating, that he don't know where it will go short term. But when he have signal/setup he buys and sells. When work out, you have nice gain, when don't you have small loss. Not bad really... And btw, if I understand him well, he don't think that with gold is over at all.